Between Freedom and Energy
Edited By Galina Michaleva and Andrey Ryabov
Grigory Yavlinsky - Anticipating the Crisis: Russian Economic Prospects - 11
Grigory Yavlinsky Anticipating the Crisis: Russian Economic Prospects When estimating Russia’s current economic prospects, the majority of today’s economists are brimming with optimism. Over the next several years their predictions include GDP growth rates of seven to eight percent, a continuing consumer boom, growing industrial investment and economic diversiﬁcation, all combined with a fur- ther decrease in inﬂation and a stable public ﬁnancial system. Even considerable drops in oil prices and commodities production are not seen as substantial detriments. Despite a swift decline in Russia’s trade surplus and currency reserves, the rouble will maintain its long-term stability and grow stronger against the majority of the world’s currencies. All of this, happening under politically stable conditions, will further improve Russia’s investment climate, pro- moting foreign capital inﬂow and thus supporting high rates of economic growth. Furthermore, in this dream world, the tendency of Russian big companies towards globalisation will work to the advantage of the Russian economy, offering ever more ﬁnancial ﬂows and administrative resources. Impressive, but Only Mildly … These promises of a rapid economic miracle are based on current achievements. But Russian economic success, though indisputable, is not as great as it might seem and, in our opinion, does not war- rant such optimism. Firstly, we should not be deluded by the high GDP growth rate. Statistics by nature can be deceptive, and when applied to something 12 Grigory Yavlinsky as lacking in diversity and transparency as the current Russian economy, that deceptive nature increases exponentially. We...
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