Research on Business

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Foreword

Handbook of Research on Business gathers studies adressing business not only from different perspectives, but also referring to different contexts. Thus, the current volüme acknowledges the importance that context has in business studies, regardless of the topics or methodology. Handbook of Research on Business consists of 32 that use both quantitative and qualitative methodologies and underline the importance that context has in deciphering business process.

Calliari, Cavallo and Fiorani discuss the impact of EU funding on the Romanian economy and on macro-sectoral aspects of the edonomy from different perspectives. The comparison of the fishery sector in Turkey and European Union was witten by Derya İlkay Abdikoğlu and Gökhan Unakıtan. The authors compare Turkey and the European Union in regards to fish production, consumption, imports, and exports. The title of Oktay Aktürk and Ertugrul Güreşci’s paper is the importance of the independence of central banks and an evaluation on the independence of the central bank of the republic of Turkey. The authors focus on the importance of central bank for maintaining and sustaining their countries’ economic stability. Yasin Barut takes a particular case related to the automotive supply industry in Izmir. He debates on the effect of emotional intelligence and organizational learning on automotive supply industry. Sevgin Batuk Turan underlines the effect of career planning on work engagement and the mediator role of pereceived organizational support and the role of career planning in creating a strong relationship between the organization and the employee. Another paper is related to the relation between social and self-leaedership with social netweok analysis. Şafak Baysal discusses the impact of social capital on multiple aspects of organizational life. Kamil Bircan, Güneş Açelya Sipahi and Batuhan Çullu present the evaluation of the supply chain soutions in low carbon development in their paper. Handan Cam and Busra Tosunoglu draw attention upon the effects of an accounting information system on the institutionalisation level of enterprises and the authors develeop and tested a model in their research paper. Mucahit Cayin’s study tries to indicate an assessment of commercial relations between Turkey and the organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation which Turkey played a leading role in its establishment.

The paper on Talent Management Approach in Information Age by Esma Gorkem Ersoy underlines the rapid and constant changes in the agenda of the business world. Mehmet Gencturk, Mehmet Dinc and H. Basar Onem carry out a research related to Suleyman Demirel University Vaocational Schools. The ← 9 | 10 → authors are looking for a relationship between vocational school academicians’ self-reported financial behaviours and personality tendencies. The study carried out by Esma Gultekin aims at presenting the effect of financial and trade openness on economic growth in Turkey. Harun Hurma, D. Cagla Turan and Metin Gumus, with their paper entitled Agritourism as a Risk Management Strategy and the Evaluation by a Multidimensional Scaling Analysis of armers’s perceptions debate on variour risk management strategies such as: product differentiation, stable production operations, contract production and insurance. Gungor Turan, Eglantina Hysa, Marsela Fejzaj and Mergleda Hodo examines Graduates’ Skills and Employability in the Labour Market with the the expectations of graduates and perspectives of employers. Meryem Samirkas and Mustafa Can Samirkas debate upon effects of inflation targeting on the banking sector with monetary policies in Turkey. Ceylan Yilmaz, Seyhan Bilir Guler and Fatma Lorcu examine the evaluation of the total quality practices in banking services in terms of internal and external customer satisfaction. They argue that the business establishments will survive merely by outcompeting with the open market system seek for different tools and methods to achieve such a competitive advantage. Another research paper was written by Nilgun Kahraman who presents women’s council in city councils in terms of participation. The author takes Bursa Nilufer as a case in her paper. Serol Karalar carries out a research on the effect of academicians’ demographic characteristics on organizational deviance behaviour. The author underlines modern organizations with various characteristics. Yasemin Karatekin Alkoc and Ceyda Kavurmacı’s study of a case towards understanding the relationship between organizational justice, organizational legitimacy and turnover intention: 2015 Bursa automotive industry strike. The authors attempt to articulate the case that influence the international environment. Bilge Akca Aksay and Mevhibe Ay Turkmen try to answer the question of ‘Why Should I Share’ while examining the motivational factors of knowledge sharing in manufacturing firms. The authors applied a survey in order to learn the factors effecting knowledge donating and knowledge collecting behaviours. Ozge Erdolek Kozal and R. Funda Barbaros present a study of overview of the world economy: the case of Turkey, expectations and possibilities. The authors state that there will be a major shift towards specialiation which will change the distribution of added value in the whole world. Salih Yesil, Fikret Sozbilir and Fatih Firtina, with their paper entitled exploring the role of job satisfaction on organizational commitment among medical secretaries, try to reveal the relationship between job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Yesim Reel argues her paper on new regulatory perspectives for a developing country: the case of Turkey. The author states that some regulatory implications ← 10 | 11 → are weak and subject to historical concerns with an over-powerful bureaucracy, politicisation and executive influence, and dynamics that create rather than curtail rent-seeking behaviours. Celal Kizildere examines G-20: crticial view and evaluation of Australian summit. He argues that the strong international cooperation and international platforms are needed in order to solve global economic crisis. Murat Silinir’s paper presents strategic importance of smart power in the twenty-first century. The author argues that power is a phenomenon that reflects a very controversial structure. The papeer 360 degree performance appraisal in public institutions: the case of Antalya ILBANK, written by Ali Sahin, Ibrahim Ugur Erkis and Yasin Taspinar, underline the fast development in both administrative approach and technology in recent years has caused all institutional structures to change. Didem Tezsurucu, Batuhan Cullu and Kamil Bircan share a Turkish experience related to the Agean region marinas. The authors explore reverse logistics activities on waste management and fill in literature about waste management of marinas from a logistics view makes this research instructive for future studies. Halit Cicek and Gamze Cimen examine the effectiveness of budget policies in establishing fiscal discipline: Turkey’s implementations. Alsoi the authors make some recommendations. The papera sociological perspective on civil disobedience via taxation: the case of Turkey, written by Ebru Acik Turguter and Zeynep Muftuoglu Hos, analysis the history of civil disobedience through the perspective of law and sociology. Suna Tekel’s paper presents global issues related to youth unemployment. The author states that the increase in youth unemployment, which is thrice as much as the adult unemployment, despite the increase in education rates, raises social discontent. Mumin Koktas discusses the concepts of enlightenment, civil society and political economy in his paper. The author states that It is impossible to grasp every aspect and country experiences of the Enlightenment at the same time because it was a broad European-wide movement throughout the eighteenth-century. The last paper a qualitative study on entrepreneurial skills of principals, written by Osman Ferda Beytekin and Serpil Duman examines the opinions on the entrepreneurial skills of principals as well as their reflections on the schools.

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Sergio Calliari, Antonella Cavallo & Giuseppe Fiorani^*

The impact of EU funding between 2014 and 2020 on the Romanian economy

Abstract The present analysis contributes to the discussion on the impact of EU funding on the Romanian economy and is focused mainly on macro-sectoral aspects of the economy. Using the AMECO Database from 1995 to 2013 we built a macro-econometric model able to simulate different economic policy scenarios taking into account EU funds for the 2014–2020 period. In particular we define a baseline scenario without EU funds injected into the economy and two alternative scenarios with varying absorption rates and allocation mixes. In order to do this we re-classify the measures or the Operational Programme into three main economic categories: Physical infrastructure, Human Resources, and Direct Aid to the Productive Sector.

We estimate an average increase in the growth rate of the GDP ranging between 0.5% in the conservative scenario and 2.5% in the most optimistic one. Our results suggest that increasing the proportions of funding for private investment leads to more marked effects, both in strength and durability.

Keywords: macro-econometric model; scenarios; European Funds; Romania.

Introduction

In the wake of the 2014–2020 programming period, the debate on the impact of EU funding on the Romanian economy is more relevant than ever and salient questions have arisen: What are the main needs of Romania? How should economic and social cohesion policies be implemented, in order to accelerate the convergence process? As emphasised by the European Commission, the answer to the first question can be easily found with the help of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The Romanian GDP represents less than half of the EU average, and its growth — in a period of economic stagnation — depends mainly on domestic demand and public investments; these, in turn, are partly obstructed by persistent difficulties in the use of European funds. Labour participation remains low, with an employment rate of approximately 63% and an unemployment rate of 7.4%. Youth unemployment is considerably more marked (23.7%) with almost one in four young Romanians seeking employment, and the level of educational ← 13 | 14 → achievement is declining. Finally, significant regional disparities persist, owing to the failure to address important structural weaknesses: transport infrastructure, remoteness from markets, demographic decline and extensive poverty in rural and remote areas. In a nutshell, the most urgent challenges are low labour participation, under-developed infrastructures, lack of competitiveness of Romanian businesses, and low administrative capacity.

In regards to the second question, the answer is less clear-cut. Our contribution to the on-going debate is twofold: 1) an ex-post examination of the effects of EU funds on the Romanian economy between 2007 and 2013, and 2) an ex-ante analysis of the expected impact of EU financing for the next programming period. For both exercises we use an ad hoc macro-econometric model (R.GREM 2.0) designed to account for medium- to long-term dynamics in the Romanian economy.

The ex-post analysis compares the results of a simulated scenario where no EU funds flow into the economy between 2007 and 2012 with the actual economic outcomes (i.e. after the inflow of 91 billion Lei in European funding). The difference between the two results can be interpreted as the effect of the EU fund injection. We find that in the absence of EU funds, thWe economy would have grown at a slower rate (an estimated average of 1.1% lower than the observed one). Two important conclusions can be derived from this result. First, the injection of EU funds has had a notable anti-crisis effect, helping to stabilise the economy and encouraging growth. Secondly, it has proved effective despite the low absorption rate (approximately 30% of available funding).

These findings are encouraging and anchor our study, as they support the claim that EU funds can act as an important growth driver. However, they contribute little to understanding the extent to which these resources can help accelerate economic growth and speed up the pace to convergence. In order to do that, we simulate and compare the results of three different economic policy scenarios for the 2014–2020 period. The three scenarios vary in one key aspect: the amount of external resources flowing into the economy. The baseline scenario assumes no EU funding is available over the next seven years, that is, no European (external) resources flow into the economy. The first alternative scenario (“realistic”) describes a situation where European funding is allocated to Romania but only an insufficient 40% of available resources are actually put to use. Nonetheless, as EU funds can be considered additional resources (no crowding-out effect) an estimated 52.6 billion Lei will enter the economy. In the second alternative scenario (“optimistic”) the absorption capacity improves considerably and the expenditure rate reaches 80% of allocated resources. While in every other respect it is identical to the other two scenarios, the amount of EU funds now flowing into the economy has reached an estimated 103 billion lei. ← 14 | 15 →

1. The ex-post analysis: EU funding and economic growth between 2007 and 2013

In the 2007–2013 programming period, Romania was allocated a total of 91,780,073,259 Lei divided between two operational programmes (technical assistance and administrative capacity), 4 sectoral operational programmes (competitiveness, environment, human resources, and transport), the regional operational programme and agricultural development funds. Annual allocations have increased constantly, more than doubling between the first and last programming years (from 8.9% of the total allocation in 2007 to 18% in 2013).

Figure 1: Allocation and expenditure of EU funding between 2007 and 2013 (in billion lei)

The level of expenditure has also increased steadily over the years. The sharp fall in the last programming year is likely due to the lack of complete data for 2013, for which reason, comparisons should be avoided. The percentage of expenditure on annual allocated funds ranged from under 0.01% in 2007 to 53% in 2012. Nonetheless, the overall level of expenditure remained low, reaching a cumulative 30% of total allocation at the end of the programming period.

Table 1 reports the growth differentials between the effective performance of the economy (with EU funds) and the simulated economic performance in the absence of EU funding. The values represent differences between annual changes ← 15 | 16 → for each indicator and are obtained by subtracting the observed results (with EU funds) from the simulated results (no EU funds). Negative numbers stand for situations where the actual values were higher than the simulated ones.

Table 1: Growth differentials (2009–2012)

We find that in the absence of EU funds, the GDP growth rate would have been lower during the economic crisis, by an average of 1.1%, and private consumption would have decreased more substantially. The injection of additional resources into the economy also led to a small but positive effect on total employment and on the unemployment rate.

2. Literature: macroeconomic model for the ex-ante analysis

In order to assess the impact of cohesion policy expenditure on the beneficiary countries, two principal models are usually used: Quest and Hermin. In this section, instead of giving a complete explanation of each model, we provide only some clear points useful in understanding how different these models are and how EU funds are implemented. Quest is a macroeconomic model DG ECFIN used for macroeconomic policy analysis and research. It is a structural macro-model in the New-Keynesian tradition with rigorous microeconomic foundations derived from utility and profit optimisation and including frictions in goods, labour, and financial markets. There are different versions of the QUEST model, estimated and calibrated, each used for specific purposes. QUEST III, is currently used to work with EU funds scenarios as proposed by Varga J. and J. in’t Veld (2009). The injection of EU funds has the following consequences:

The HERMIN models were developed in the late 1980s to analyse the first Irish Structural Fund programme of 1989–1993; they have been over time, however some general elements have remained constant. Conventional Keynesian mechanisms are the core of the HERMIN model. Each HERMIN model has three broad components: a supply side; an absorption side; and an income distribution side. It disaggregates GDP into five production branches (manufacturing, building and construction, market services, agriculture, and non-market [or public] services). In addition, it performs a fairly standard disaggregation of the expenditure and income measures of the GDP, plus a detailed treatment of general government revenue and expenditure activities (Bradley and Janusz Zaleski, 2003).

In Hermin, EU funds are aggregated as investment expenditures on physical infrastructure, investment expenditures on human resources, and expenditures on direct production/investment aid to the private sector. These influence the economy through a mixture of supply and demand effects. On the demand side, Keynesian effects are introduced in the models as a consequence of increases in the expenditure and income policy instruments used by EU funds, and this has a transitory effect.

On the supply side EU funds generate an increased investment in order to improve physical infrastructure as an input to private sector productive activity; an increase in human capital, due to investment in training; an input to private sector productive activity; a channel for public funding assistance to the private sector to stimulate investment, thus increasing factor productivity and reducing sectoral costs of production and of capital.

Therefore there are different models for evaluation of the impact of EU funds, with different assumptions.