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Contemporary Approaches in Humanities

Edited By Hasan Arslan, Mehmet Ali Içbay, Günther Löschnigg and Rasim Yilmaz

This book presents a collection of papers written by researchers, teachers, administrators, analysts and graduate students working and doing research in the field of social sciences. The scientific studies include a wide range of topics from the analysis of social science textbooks to the teacher image in newspapers, the relationship between self-efficacy and cognitive level and the role of organizational silence on the loneliness of academics in work life.

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Analysıng Turkey’s Coal Mining Disaster Data (1983–2014) with Poisson Change-Point Models (K. Burcu Öngen Bilir / Mustafa Aytaç / Necmi Gürsakal)


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Arş. Gör. K. Burcu Öngen Bilir, Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aytaç & Prof. Dr. Necmi Gürsakal

Analysing Turkey’s Coal Mining Disaster Data (1983–2014) with Poisson Change-Point Models

Abstract Poisson with two change points had been studied by Carlin, Gelfand and Smith (Carlin, Gelfand and Smith, 1992) and multiple change-point models had been studied by Chib (Chib, 1998). Using time series data and Bayesian analysis with an R package MCMCpack, we may determine the change points of a time series. After a brief literature survey on change point models, Bayesian analysis, theoretical foundations of change point models and MCMC will be explained. Also the essentials of the R package MCMCpack will be given in this section.

We have the yearly coal mining disaster data within Turkey between 1983 and 2014. Studying this time series data and using the Bayesian MCMC approach, change points were determined. Our paper ends with a discussion section that takes into account the regulative and inspectional regime changes and tries to explain the meaning of these change-points according to these changes.

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