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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation


David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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A. Parameters of Wind Propulsion Systems


In order to achieve a realistic simulation of the ship propulsion energy the parameter values in this section are similar to the dimensions of wind propulsion systems and of a multi-purpose carrier which have actually been constructed and operated in reality. The parameter values of the speed power curve (sec. 2.2.2) in tbl. A.1 were fitted based on vessel speed and fuel consumption measurements conducted on the “BBC Hudson” (a multi-purpose carrier).

Table A.1: Parameters of the speed power curve model

The values in tbl. A.2 are similar to the dimensions of the Flettner-rotors installed on the E-Ship 1 in fig. 2.4. The values in tbl. A.3 are similar to the dimensions of the DynaRig installation on the “Maltese Falcon” in fig. 2.2. And the values in tbl. A.4 are similar to the dimensions of the kite-sail has been installed on the “BBC SkySails” Aschenbeck et al. (2009).

Table A.2: Parameters of the Flettner-rotor model

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Table A.3: Parameters of the Dyna-ship model (with 3 DynaRigs)

Table A.4: Parameters of the kite model

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