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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation


David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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3. Statistical Patterns of Uncertainty in Weather Predictions


Abstract: Chapter 2 described reasons and consequences of weather prediction uncertainty in two offshore applications. Therefore, this chapter assesses the accuracy of historical weather predictions in search for patterns that can be used to estimate prediction uncertainty. For this purpose, the historical weather prediction accuracy is calculated conditionally on individual months, prediction horizons and locations for the Northern and Baltic Seas and for the North Atlantic Ocean. Patterns are found with regard to long-term average prediction accuracy but these patterns vary significantly every year.


3.1. Prediction error metrics

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