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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation

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David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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Acknowledgements

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I am very grateful for the guidance and support by Prof. Otthein Herzog and Prof. Michael Schlaak. I would also like to thank Prof. Elsner who initiated the ROBUST project which was the framework for this thesis. I am grateful to all the associates in Bremen and in Emden for helping me with fruitful discussions or just for being great colleagues. Furthermore I would like to thank Thorsten Bielefeld, Roland Grashorn, Andreas Traumüller and Heiko Stein whose bachelor theses contributed to the implementation of this work.

I am grateful to Dr. Thomas Bruns for his consultation and for providing historical weather predictions by the German Weather Service which where essential to this work.

And I would like to thank the “VolkswagenStiftung” for financing my thesis.

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