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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation


David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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Bibliographic Information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the internet at

Zugl.: Bremen, Univ., Diss., 2016

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Zastrau, David, author. Title: Estimation of uncertainty of wind energy predictions : with application to weather routing and wind power generation / David Zastrau. Description: Frankfurt am Main : Peter Lang GmbH, 2017. | Series: Maritime logistics, ISSN 1868-369X ; vol. 9 | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017002422| ISBN 9783631718858 | ISBN 9783631718957 (E-PDF) | ISBN 9783631718964 (EPUB) | ISBN 9783631718971 (MOBI) Subjects: LCSH: Wind power. | Winds--Measurement. | Estimation theory. Classification: LCC TJ820 .Z37 2017 | DDC 621.31/2136--dc23 LC record available at

D 46 ISSN 1868-369X ISBN 978-3-631-71885-8 (Print) E-ISBN 978-3-631-71895-7 (E-PDF) E-ISBN 978-3-631-71896-4 (EPUB) E-ISBN 978-3-631-71897-1 (MOBI) DOI 10.3726/b11013

© Peter Lang GmbH Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften Frankfurt am Main 2017 All rights reserved.

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