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The Change toward Cooperation in the George W. Bush Administration’s Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy toward North Korea

Series:

Jonas Schneider

This book offers a case study in foreign policy change: It examines why the Bush administration suddenly redirected its nuclear nonproliferation policy toward North Korea in the aftermath of North Korea’s first nuclear test in October 2006, abandoning its former confrontational approach in favor of a more accommodating line. Existing explanations of this course reversal draw on the security implications of a growing crisis on the Korean Peninsula, U.S. domestic politics, and changing decision-making dynamics within the Bush administration. Employing before-after comparison, the study refutes these accounts – and it offers an alternative explanation: The Bush administration altered its nonproliferation policy toward North Korea toward a cooperative course because after the nuclear test, it perceived fundamentally improved prospects for fruitful cooperation on North Korea’s denuclearization.

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10 Bibliography 10.1 Primary Sources Agreed Framework between the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Geneva, October 21, 1994, http://www.kedo. org/pdfs/AgreedFramework.pdf (4-4-06). Armitage, Richard, A Comprehensive Approach to orth Korea, Institute for National Security Studies: National Defense University, Strategic Forum No. 159, 1999, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF159/forum159.html (1-7-08). Bolton, John R., Pyongyang’s Perfidy, in: Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2007, p. A17. ——, Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad, New York: Threshold Editions, 2007. Briefing to the U Security Council on behalf of the Committee established pur- suant to resolution 1718 (2006) by Ambassador Marcello Spatafora, Permanent Representative of Italy to the United ations, July 10, 2007, http://www. un.org/sc/committees/1718/pdf/briefing10072007.pdf (10-22- 08). Burns, R. Nicholas, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, U.S. Policy to- ward orth Korea, Testimony to the House International Relations Com- mittee, Washington, D.C., November 16, 2006, http://www.state.gov/p/ us/rm/2006/76178.htm (1-13-07). Bush, George W., ational Security Presidential Directive 1, February 13, 2001, Washington, D.C., http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/nspd-1.htm (4-9-08). Central Intelligence Agency, Estimate of orth Korean uclear Capability (Un- classified Version), Prepared for Congress, November 19, 2002, http:// www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/cia111902.html (11-8-08). Cha, Victor D., Korea’s Place in the Axis, in: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81 (2002), No. 3, pp. 79-92. ——, Winning Asia: Washington’s Untold Success Story, in: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86 (2007), No. 6, pp. 98-113. Green, Michael J., Nuclear Shockwaves: Making the Best of Bad Options, in: Arms Control Today, Vol. 36 (2006), No. 9, pp. 9-13. 162 The...

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