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Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment for Economic Systems

Vulnerability and the Process of Recovery for Households and Companies in Phang-Nga and Phuket Provinces in Thailand


Philipp Willroth

In 2004 tsunami waves caused huge economic losses along the coastline of Southern Thailand. These resulted from direct damages and the following economic downturn. This study investigates the factors that led to this vulnerable situation. One of the greatest challenges in vulnerability research is the quantification. To answer this question, a wide database has been used, encompassing highly accurate remote sensing data, quantitative surveys and qualitative focus group discussion data. These data have been integrated in a structural equation model to reproduce factors and relations leading to the hazard induced effects and the capabilities to cope with. The model showed that the impact was almost completely compensated for by households’ and companies’ internal and external resilience capabilities.


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Table 70: Outer weights for household vulnerability model (Author’s design, based on own calculation) Factor Indicator Weight VIF Durbin- Watson Assets Long-term consumable assets 0.30 1.10 1.93 Property value 0.87 1.10 Damage Long-term consumable assets 0.52 1.11 1.74 Property value 0.71 1.11 Help from government Support from government 1.00 n/a n/a Help from NGO Support from NGO 1.00 n/a n/a Own resources Investment of own resources 1.00 n/a n/a Recovery time from indirect effects Duration of loss of income in months 1.00 n/a n/a Infrastructure Interruption of road system in days 0.83 1.53 1.95 Interruption of water system in days 0.39 1.40 Interruption of telephone network in days -0.61 1.21 Location Distance from coastline 0.74 1.15 1.94 Height above sea level 0.27 1.13 Rebuilt house 0.31 1.23 Personal injuries Family members life-threateningly injured 0.23 1.07 2.00 Family members lightly injured 0.92 1.07 Recovery time from direct effects Time to recover long-term consumable assets 0.88 1.06 2.07 Time to recover from property damage 0.32 1.06 Education and income level Average education for household mem- bers in working age 0.10 1.04 2.03 Household income in THB 0.97 1.04 Income from tourism Share of household income from tourism 1.00 n/a n/a Income diversification Shannon Index for income diversification 1.00 n/a n/a significant min 5 % error- TRAIT Household Survey 254 Table 71: Outer weights for company vulnerability model (Author’s design, based on own calculation) Factor Indicator Weight VIF Durbin- Watson Assets Amount of productive assets and property 1.00 n/a n/a Location Distance from...

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