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Monetary Policy Rules

Empirical Applications Based on Survey Data


Dirk Bleich

This work provides different studies of how econometric evaluation of monetary policy based on forward-looking Taylor rules is conducted. The first part discusses theoretical results regarding the Taylor principle and can be used as a guideline for the evaluation of the following three empirical applications based on survey data of Consensus Economics. The first application deals with the question whether the introduction of inflation targeting affects monetary policy. The second application investigates the consequences of oil price movements for monetary policy. The third application analyzes monetary policy conditions in Spain before and after the changeover to the Euro by estimating forward-looking Taylor rules.


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The subsequent piece of work has been accepted as my dissertation thesis at the WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management in Vallendar in May 2011. It would not have been possible to write it thesis without the help and support of the kind people around me. First and foremost, I would like to gratefully and sincerely thank Professor Michael Frenkel and Professor Ralf Fendel for their personal support, their thoughtful guidance, their great pa- tience and their understanding at all times during my PhD studies at WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management. Their mentorship was of immeasurable value for my personal development and, most importantly, their friendship was the basis for an incomparable and unique environment. Their support and understanding during the time my son Alexander was born surpassed everything I expected. I am also indebted to many of my current and former colleagues and friends at the Department of Economics at the WHU. In particular, these are Tobias Biller, Niklas Gadatsch, Eliza Lis, Nicole Reufels, Dr. Günter Schmidt, Andreas Tudyka and Lilli Zimmermann. All of them have con- tributed significantly to this work. A special thank is directed to Professor Achim Czerny for his support in Mathematica. Moreover, I owe my deepest gratitude to Professor Jan-Christoph Rülke. Without his guidance and help this thesis could have hardly been accomplished. I would like to acknowledge the financial, academic, and technical support of the WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management and its staff. The library...

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