Empirical Applications Based on Survey Data
Appendix C Weighted average of expected GDP and CPI
In order to generate a forecast ft with a twelve-month forecast horizon, we calculated a weighted arithmetic average of the forecast for the current year f curt and the next year fnextt . We weight the forecast ft with the remaining number of months m (with 1 (= December) ≤ m ≤ 12 (= January)) at the time of the forecast t (Rülke (2009)). The twelve-month GDP and CPI forecasts ft are as follows: (C.1) ft = f curt ·m+ (12−m) · fnextt 12 This procedure is also applied by Gorter et al. (2008), Heppke-Falk and Hüﬀner (2004) and Beck (2001). All studies deal with data of the Consensus Economic Forecast poll and construct the arithmetic average as outlined above.
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