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A Structural Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan


Mirza Nomman Ahmed

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.


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In his work the author addresses a highly interesting topic from the perspective of agricultural economics and environmental policy. The contribution discusses the impacts of climate change on agriculture in developing countries, particularly in Pakistan. Pakistan’s agriculture is considered to be notably vulnerable to changes in temperature, weather extremes and altered seasonal distribution of precipitation. In terms of content, above all emphasis is laid on addressing the question of ‘how farmers adapt to changing climatic conditions’. Concerning this only sparse literature is available, especially for agriculture in developing countries. The economic valuation of changes in climate is complicated by the existence of significant temporal and spatial differences and that in many cases appropriate data for an empirically sound analysis is often unavailable. This is where Mr. AHMED’s work commences from. On the basis of a comprehensive dataset which has been made available to him by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics especially for the purpose of the research, the author works out which adaptation strategies farmers in different Agro- Ecological-Zones/ Districts/ Provinces select and which role i.e. annual seasons, water availability, soil quality, infrastructure, available technology, education, household size and the frequent flood catastrophes thereby play. With the help of sophisticated econometric models and a choice modeling approach he identifies the most important explanatory factors for adaptation behavior, derives the respective income effects and simulates the impacts of a future change in temperature and precipitation. In modeling the impacts of climate change on agriculture a prominent role is played by agronomic...

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