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A Structural Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan

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Mirza Nomman Ahmed

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

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8 Climate Change Scenarios and Simulations using the Ricardian Approach

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The following chapter simulates the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan by using the parameter estimates obtained from both Ricardian regressions. By utilizing the estimated response functions the simulations incorporate the expected changes in climate delivered by an ensemble of Global Circulation Models on a district scale and calculate possible impacts for the agriculture in the country. Further investigations towards changes in future water availability and the estimation of the value of adaptation are made. 8.1 Specification of future Climate Change for Pakistan To predict the impact of future climate scenarios this study makes use of the dataset which was prepared by the Oxford School of Geography and the Environment. Under the umbrella of the UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) the Oxford School of Geography and the Environment at the University of Oxford has developed the project Climate Change Country Profiles to address the climate change information gap in many developing countries. Funding for the project was received from the United Nations National Communications Support Programme (NSCP) and the UK Department for International Development (DfID). The project aims at making up-to-date data on real observations and simulated observations available to the wider research community. By using the latest data from various renowned sources such as the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and by additionally utilizing the multi-model projections from the WCRP CMIP3 (World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) the country profiles are created for a number of Asian and other developing countries (MCSWEENEY et al., 2010;...

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