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Competition in Electricity Generation in Germany and Neighboring Countries from a System Dynamics Perspective

Outlook Until 2012


Christoph Grobbel

Contents: Results of the simulation show that electricity prices might fall from their current level of above seven Pf/kWh to around five Pf/kWh before they will finally recover at the full cost level of CCGT - A counter intuitive finding is that the profitability of CCGT power plants does not decrease when gas prices increase, because the price setting plants are usually gas fired, forcing the electricity prices up by an even higher percentage - Without much additional work, the model permits to determine a company's optimal generation strategy.