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The Economy in Transition

A System of Models and Forecasts for Germany

Gerhard Gehrig

This publication is a further result of a joint research with mainly W. Welfe on economies in transition financed by the European Community. To analyse and forecast the German economy a system of models for the old and new lands has been established. Forecasts are done by simulations. This part of the results contains a multi-variate time series analysis and the West German money and capital market with 50 equations. The demand for labour will be shown broken down to industries, qualification levels and sex by 40 equations. A sensitivity analysis has been applied to the structure of the model for the German economy. In addition, a simulation on an optimistic scenario shows the economic development of the two German economies up to the year 2000. Finally, a model to connect foreign trade with the system of models shows an application for Poland and Slovakia also by a simulation.
Contents: Money and capital market - Labour demand by industries, qualification levels and sex - Economic development up to 2000 in the new and old lands of Germany (optimistic simulation) - Sensitivity analysis of the structure of the model - Bilateral trade flows for Germany, Poland and Slovakia - Multi-variate time series analysis.