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Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the WTO and Its Poverty Implications

A Study of Rural Households in Northern Vietnam

Series:

Sabine Daude

This volume analyzes poverty implications of agricultural liberalization commitments of the WTO. The chosen micro-macro approach examines the link between international trade liberalization policies and impacts at household level. The possible outcomes of the current Doha Round for the agricultural negotiations are simulated using a general equilibrium model. Two scenarios are analyzed relating to whether or not Vietnam, as an example of an accession candidate, becomes a member of the WTO. The resulting price changes are combined with household survey data to derive income and poverty effects. Results show that households in mountainous areas of northern Vietnam are negatively affected in their poverty position by agricultural trade liberalization in the WTO if Vietnam were not a member of the WTO, however, these households gain if Vietnam accedes to the WTO. The study concludes that although trade liberalization would lead to poverty reduction effects for households in these marginalized zones, this would need to be complemented by further measures within the framework of poverty reduction programs.
Contents: Agricultural trade liberalization – WTO – General equilibrium modeling – Household data – Vietnam – Poverty implications of liberalization.