This unique work assesses both the demand-reducing impacts and the political costs and benefits of every major federal and state antismoking policy. Special attention is given to warning labels, the federal government's favorite action. The demand-stimulating effects of advertising, new brands, and nicotine yields are also gauged. Simonich develops (1) a cognitive theory of smoking choice that incorporates nicotine addiction, (2) an econometric model of cigarette demand, and (3) a political analysis based on theories of policy innovation and diffusion. He proposes a simple rule to better reconcile political expediency and sales-reducing effects in the future. The book contains two invaluable resources: the only quarterly data set of U.S. cigarette demand and a detailed summary of prior demand models.
New York, Bern, Frankfurt/M., Paris, 1991. XIII, 301 pp., 21 tab., 2 fig.
Contents: Comparative political advantages of government antismoking policies - Cognitive theory of smoking choice - Simultaneous
equation model of cigarette demand, ad spending, and nicotine yields - Political/econometric synthesis.