Issues in Emerging Market Economies

Sönmez, Alper; Çetin, Dilek

Issues in Emerging Market Economies

by Alper Sönmez (Volume editor) Dilek Çetin (Volume editor)

Summary

This book analyzes the main economic issues of Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) on a country and regional basis. The authors investigate in detail the industry structure, agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors of EMEs. They also present comprehensive research on inflation, growth, employment, and labor force markets. The book also explores the capital market developments, total factor productivity, labor force participation, and foreign direct investment inflows. Moreover, the book discusses the monetary policies in EMEs and the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the EMEs.
Finally, the book discusses policy implications for EMEs and offers political recommendations for the public institutions in emerging markets.

Excerpt

Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
About the editors
About the book
Citability of the eBook
Contents
List of Contributors
1 Introduction: Issues in Emerging Market Economies
Part A Sectoral Analysis
2 Structure of the Agricultural Sector in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Overview of Agricultural Sector in EMEs
3 Detailed Statistics on Agricultural Sector in EMEs
3.1 Agricultural Efficiency and Value Added in EMEs
3.1.1 Share of Agricultural Value Added
3.1.2 Agricultural Land
3.1.3 Female Employment in Agricultural Sector
3.1.4 Male Employment in Agricultural Sector
3.1.5 Labor Efficiency in Crop Production
3.1.6 Labor Force Efficiency in Livestock Production
3.1.7 Crop Production Index
3.1.8 Crop Efficiency in Arable Land
3.1.9 Livestock Efficiency in Arable Land
3.2 Relationship between Production Indicators and Efficiency
3.3 Rural Life Indicators
3.3.1 Rural Population
3.3.2 Improved Sanitation Facilities
3.3.3 Improved Water Resources
4 Conclusion
3 The Industry Structure in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Structure of the Industry
2.1 Employment in the Industry
2.2 Value Added of the Industry
3 Structure of the Manufacturing Industry
3.1 Value Added in the Manufacturing Industry
4 Conclusion
4 Service Sector in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Service Sector Structure
2.1 GDP Share
2.2 Growth of Value Added in Service Sector
2.3 Employment
2.3.1 Female Employment
2.3.2 Male Employment
2.4 International Trade
2.4.1 Service Export
2.4.2 Service Imports
3 Conclusion
Appendix
Part B Factors of Production
5 Labor Force Markets in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 LFM Indicators
2.1 Labor Force
2.2 Labor Force Participation
2.2.1 Male Labor Force Participation
2.2.2 Female Labor Force Participation
2.2 Unemployment
2.2.1 Total Unemployment Rates
2.2.2 Male Unemployment Rates
2.2.3 Female Unemployment Rates
3 Conclusion
6 Capital Market Developments in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Capital Markets in EMEs
2.1 Equities Markets
2.2 Bond Markets
2.3 Effect of Globalization on Domestic Markets
3 General Issues and Problems
4 Conclusion
7 Total Factor Productivity in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 TFP Growth in EMEs
3 Region Based Comparisons
3.1 Latin American EMEs
3.2 Asian EMEs
3.3 European EMEs
3.4 South Africa
4 Conclusion
Part C The Effect of 2008 Crisis
8 The Global Economic Crisis and its Effects on the Growth Rate of EMEs
1 Introduction
2 The Financial and Real Sector Crisis in the United States and the Global Economic Crisis
2.1 The European Union Loan Crisis under the Effects of the Global Economic Crisis
3 The Effects of the Global Economic Crisis and the European Debt Crisis on the Growth of EMEs
3.1 Latin America
3.2 Europe
3.3 Asia
3.4 Africa
4 Conclusion
Appendix: What is Growth and How is it Measured?
9 Inflation as a Historical Problem in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Historical Inflation Process in EMEs
2.1 Why has Inflation been Historically High in Emerging Markets?
3 The Trends in 1990s and Global Disinflation
3.1 The Reasons of the Decline in Inflation in 1990s
4 Inflation Performance in 2000s and Globalization of Inflation
4.1 Commodity Prices as the Common Driver of Inflation in the Second Half of 2000s
4.2 Globalization and Inflation
5 Inflation in EMEs during Global Financial Crisis and Afterwards
6 Conclusion
10 Global Financial Crisis and Unemployment in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Unemployment Rates
3 Employment and GDP Growth
4 Labor Force Participation Rate
5 Labor Productivity, Wages and Price Growth
6 Conclusion
11 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Analyses of FDI Inflows (current US$) to EMEs
2.1 FDI Inflows to EMEs by Region
11.2.2. FDI Inflows to EMEs by Country
2.2.1 Latin America
2.2.2 Asia
2.2.3 Europe
2.3 The Share of EMEs in World FDI Inflows by Region
3 Analyses of FDI Inflows to EMEs as % of GDP
3.1 FDI Inflows to EMEs (as % of GDP) by Region
3.2 FDI Inflows to EMEs (as % of GDP) by Country
3.2.1 Latin America
3.2.2 Asia
3.2.3 Europe
4 Conclusion
12 Monetary Policies in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 Constraints on Monetary Policy in EMEs
3 Monetary Policy Implications in EMEs
4 Conclusion
13 Labor Force Participation in EMEs
1 Introduction
2 2008 Global Financial Crisis
3 Labor Force Participation (LFP)
3.1 Determinants of Labor Force Participation
3.2 Female Labor Force Participation
3.3 Policies to Support Labor Participation
4 Labor Force Participation in EME
5 Labor Force Participation Rate in Turkey
6 Conclusion
List of Figures
List of Tables
About the Editors
About the Authors

List of Contributors

Alper Sönmez

Selçuk University, Department of Economics, Konya, Turkey, alpersonmez80@gmail.com.

Dilek Çetin

Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey, dilekchetin@gmail.com.

Ümit K. Seyfettinoğlu

Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, umitk@akdeniz.edu.tr.

Mehmet Zanbak

Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, mehmetzanbak@akdeniz.edu.tr.

Yasemin Asu Çırpıcı

Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, yusanmaz@yahoo.com.

Emre Aksoy

Kırıkkale University, Kırıkkale, Turkey, emreaksoy66@gmail.com.

Gülsüm Akarsu

Ondokuz Mayıs University, Samsun, Turkey, akarsu.gulsum@gmail.com.

Sinem Pınar Gürel

Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey, pgurel@pau.edu.tr.

Mine Kalay

Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey, minekalay@gmail.com.

Duygu Yolcu Karadam

Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey, dyolcu@pau.edu.tr.

Fatih Şahan

Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey, fatihsahann@gmail.com.

Selen Işık Maden

Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey, selenmaden@sdu.edu.tr.

Aykut Sezgin

Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey, aykutsezgin@sdu.edu.tr.

Nazan Şahbaz Kılınç

Kırıkkale University, Kırıkkale, Turkey, nazan_sahbaz@hotmail.com. ←9 | 10→ ←10 | 11→

Alper Sönmez and Dilek Çetin

1 Introduction: Issues in Emerging Market Economies

The term emerging market was first used in 1981 by Antoine van Agtmael who was working in the International Finance Group (IFC) at World Bank. In 1980, IFC analyzed ten local markets¹ in a project which had interesting outcomes than expected. Van Agtmael generated the term “emerging market” for this new investment fund, originally named “Third World Equity Fund”, for these countries (IFC, 2016). IFC constructed the Emerging Markets Data Base (EMDB) where they collected the emerging market data available for investors. This database was later sold to a private company. Emerging markets have always attracted the attention of the investors.

As stated in an IMF working paper by Mody (2004), no unique definition is classified for “emerging markets”. The most common definition is that an emerging market economy (EME) is a developing country which has potential to become developed in the future due to the high growth rates. The EME can also be defined by the financial perspective. According to the financial definition, an EME is a financial market with high return rates accompanied with a high risk. IMF (2016a) classified countries as advanced, emerging, and developing according to per capita income, export diversification, and globalization level. According to this definition, Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) are the transition economies which the market economy rules put into effect with the economic regulations. Besides this, the globalization level of countries is important in this definition.

Jean-Claude Trichet (2007) former president of European Central Bank (ECB) summarized the importance of EMEs in his speech at India. He emphasized four main points: Demographic importance, economic importance (micro- and macroevidence), long-term economic outlook, and cultural and scientific importance. China and India have the highest population rates in the world. This population is both the source of production and cheap labor force. The magnificent ←11 | 12→amount of GDP they produce and export level make them an important role in the world economy. The projections made by IMF and World Bank indicate that the growth rates of EMEs are higher than the developed ones and expected to increase in the long run. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde (2016) made a similar speech about the importance of EMEs.

In this book, the IMF classification (IMF, 2015; 2016b) for EMEs is used in all the chapters. The countries are classified according to their continent to see if there are any similarities in the continent countries or not. The statistical tables in this book are constructed as in Tab. 1.1 by using the country abbreviations instead of their names. Twenty-three EMEs from four continents are under investigation in this book.

Tab1.1 : Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) Abbreviations and Continental Disaggregation

Regions	Countries
Latin America
ARG	Argentina
BRA	Brazil
CHL	Chile
COL	Colombia
MEX	Mexico
PER	Peru
VEN	Venezuela
Asia
BGD	Bangladesh
CHN	China
IND	India
IDN	Indonesia
MYS	Malaysia
PAK	Pakistan
PHL	Philippines
THA	Thailand
Europe
BGR	Bulgaria
HUN	Hungary
POL	Poland
ROM	Romania
RUS	Russia
TUR	Turkey
UKR	Ukraine
Africa
ZAF	South Africa

This book consists of thirteen chapters including the introduction under three parts. In the first part of the book, EMEs are analyzed through sectorial division: Agriculture, Industry, and Services Sector. In the second part, EMEs are evaluated according to the factors of production, namely labor, capital, and total factor productivity. The effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on EMEs is scrutinized in detail in the ultimate part. The crisis initially started from the United States and influenced the world including EMEs. The economic effects of the crisis are analyzed through the various macroeconomic indicators: economic growth, inflation, unemployment, foreign direct investment (FDI), labor force participation, and monetary policy.

Chapter two highlights the role of agricultural sector. In their study Structure of the Agricultural Sector in EMEs, Ümit K. Seyfettinoğlu and Mehmet Zanbak analyze the agricultural developments in EMEs through selected indicators over the period of 2000–2015. The authors explain the agricultural structures of the EMEs by using the index values calculated from the secondary data obtained from the World Bank and ILO. The authors classify indicators under three groups. Firstly, they determine and interpret the indicators which reveal the agricultural efficiency and added value structures in EMEs. Secondly, they evaluate the EMEs by using indicators regarding food production safety and efficiency structure. Finally, they discuss indicators regarding rural life in EMEs. They explore that the efficient use of agricultural land is more important than the amount of land. Also, they conclude that no country has a distinguishing feature when the development of the agricultural sector in all EMEs is evaluated. They suggest that differences in efficiency result from human capital, and they consider that technical know-how levels of the EMEs play a major role in this process.

Industrialization is seen as the main driver for economic development process especially for the developing countries. Dilek Çetin and Alper Sönmez in ←12 | 13→their study The Industry Structure in EMEs analyze the industrialization structure of EMEs. They propose that industry sector plays a major role in the transformation procedure of the country from a developing to developed one. With industrialization process, the share of industry in GDP and employment increases while the share of agriculture decreases. In their study, they investigate the shares of industry in employment and in the value added as percentage of GDP. Moreover, they analyze the growth rate of industry in value added. They ←13 | 14→also explore the structure of manufacturing industry by using the share of value added of manufacturing industry in GDP. Their findings show that the highest employment levels are from EMEs in the European region, although they create the lowest value added in the industry compared to other EMEs in both Asian and Latin American regions. They conclude that China has a remarkable industry growth with high levels of industrialization. China produces nearly 19 % of the world industry production and half of the EMEs in total. Their findings also reveal that the highest value added in industry also belongs to China.

As industrialization takes place, the share of agricultural sector in the economy decreases, while the share of industrial sector increases. Also, in the advanced stage of the economy, the service sector starts to take an increasing share in the economy. Yasemin Asu Çırpıcı in her study Service Sector in EMEs discusses general outlook of the service sector of EMEs. The author analyzes the development process of the service sector to get an idea about the development level of the EME. She compares the countries according to certain indicators of the sector. Firstly, she analyzes the share of the sector in GDP. She indicates that some countries display lower shares than others, and she provides the reasons behind this. Also, she reveals that the growth rates of the value added in the service sector are very volatile; they mostly go hand in hand with GDP growth rates. She suggests that the financial crisis of 2008 can be a reason for these growth rates. Secondly, the author analyzes the employment structure in the service sector. In this context, she discusses the handicap of low productivity and high wages in the sector. Finally, she argues the international trade of the service sector, and the role of the service sector for providing exports of intermediates.

Labor Force Markets (LFMs) in EMEs is analyzed by Emre Aksoy. He investigates the structural features, similarities, and differences of the LFMs with the aid of the key indicators. The course of LFM indicators in the long run and the correlations among the variables are valuable indicators used to understand the structures of the LFMs. His study provides significant insights about the courses and functions of LFMs, and also gives valuable hints about social dynamics. He also discusses the LFM performances of the economies in question. He provides an overall picture of the labor supply for EMEs via labor and labor force participation indicators and analyzes the unemployment rates. He discovers that EMEs do not utilize their labor force resources similarly. Also, he suggests that EMEs which have low unemployment rates and high labor force participation rates (LFPRs), and more effectively utilize their female labor force have a greater potential in the future. He concludes that LFMs differ remarkably from one another due to their cultural and demographic ←14 | 15→structures, although there are economic similarities and common features of emerging markets.

Gülsüm Akarsu in her study Capital Market Developments in EMEs analyzes the differences and the similarities in the capital markets of EMEs by using time-series data on the indicators of capital markets from 2000 to 2014. She uses the most recent data covering all EMEs, including the period after the 2008 global financial crisis. Her study discovers that some important problems in the EMEs are stock market volatility (SMV), bank dominance, stock market concentration, segmentation, illiquidity, short-termism, low saving rates, lack of financial literacy and investor education, and difficulty in the access of Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) to financing sources using capital markets. Her findings confirm that (i) the stock markets of South Africa, Malaysia, and Chile are more developed when compared to the other EMEs; (ii) bond market development is higher in Chile, Malaysia, and Thailand for private bonds and in Brazil, Hungary, and Malaysia for public bonds; (iii) among the countries under investigation, South Africa, Hungary, and Argentina seem to benefit more from globalization and internationalization of capital markets on the average, as these countries have experienced higher levels of portfolio equity inflows, foreign direct investment inflows, and international debt issuance. She suggests that EMEs should give importance to macroeconomic stability, building necessary institutional, supervisory, regulatory and legal framework as well as financial infrastructure.

Total factor productivity (TFP) is seen as a key determinant for the analyses of growth process among countries and as a useful instrument to understand how much of the GDP growth comes from growth in labor, how much comes from capital, and how much comes from improvements in TFP. Total Factor Productivity in EMEs is analyzed by Sinem Pınar Gürel. Her study investigates the TFP growth in EMEs in detail and explores the factors behind the growth process of EMEs. Her study shows that TFP has increased in all regions, but after the Great Recession, global factors played a significant role in the growth process of EMEs and in the TFP growth rates. She suggests that EMEs need policies which promote investments in human capital and innovations to boost TFP growth. Also, she concludes that the countries that want to improve their TFPs should maintain real and financial sector developmental policies.

After 1980, globalization has increased the flow of goods; services and production between countries have also become integrated. This integration of economies also accelerated the spread of the crises which started in developed countries to other countries of the World. Mine Kalay in her study The Global Economic Crisis and Its Effects on the Growth Rate of EMEs examines the effects of the crises on the growth rates of EMEs. Her study investigates the effects of the ←15 | 16→Financial and Real Sector Crisis in the USA (2006–2009), the Global Economic Crisis (2007–2012), and the European Debt Crisis (2009–2012) as part of the Global Economic Crisis.

Duygu Yolcu Karadam in her study Inflation as a Historical Problem in EMEs investigates the inflation and the changing factors behind the inflation process from the 1980s to recent years. EMEs have had to deal with high and volatile inflation throughout their histories. Especially Latin American countries have had the worst performance in inflation and inflation volatility and have had to deal with a number of hyperinflation episodes. She argues that many EMEs have managed to reduce their inflation rates considerably during the second half of the 1990s with the contribution of a number of domestic and external factors such as greater fiscal discipline, institutional and structural reforms, and low external inflation environments. She shows that EMEs succeeded in removing the structural domestic factors behind the inflation process and have entered the 2000s in a mild inflation environment with a few exceptions such as Turkey, Romania, and Venezuela. Also, she explores that the changing nature of inflation dynamics has become one of the new challenges for both emerging and industrial countries due to the intensified economic globalization. She reveals that global factors have played a dominant role in inflation in EMEs. She also discusses that global factors have started to replace domestic factors as the primary determinants of inflation. She explores that the increased level of competition in both the product and the labor markets and low demand during the global financial crisis have put downward pressure on prices in EMEs. Moreover, she argues that rising commodity prices emerged as an important driver of the inflation process for both EMEs and industrial countries after the 2000s. Her findings reveal that given their high demand for commodities, Asian countries have faced a much greater increase in inflation relative to Latin American and European EMEs after 2007. She proposes that considerable decline in oil prices after 2012 has led to a downward pressure on inflation for most of the EMEs during this period except for oil exporting countries.

The impacts of the global financial crisis on the labor markets are analyzed by Fatih Şahan, in his paper Global Financial Crisis and Unemployment in EMEs. He argues that the world economy experienced a serious slowdown with the 2008 global economic crisis, and as a result many countries recorded negative income growths and unemployment rates rose after the crisis. He discusses that advanced economies felt the negative outcomes of the crisis more deeply than the emerging ones on their economies in terms of macroeconomic indicators. He proposes that the harmful effects of the crisis are especially seen on the labor markets and unemployment. He conducts his analyses by using various ←16 | 17→important labor market indicators such as unemployment rates, labor force participation rates, labor productivity, wages, and prices. He concludes that EMEs had modest negative impacts on their labor markets following the crisis. Furthermore, his findings reveal that Asian countries showed lower unemployment rates and higher growth rates throughout the 2000s. Also, he shows that Latin American countries began the 2000s with high rates of unemployment and low rates of economic growth and throughout 2000s they stabilized these figures. On the other hand, he explores that European countries felt the negative impacts of the crisis more than the other countries and their recovery occurred at a slower pace. His study discovers that European countries experienced a decline in unemployment rates before the crisis; however, after the crisis, the unemployment rates started to increase again, which is parallel to their economic growth trend in the postcrisis period.

With the globalization process, the importance of FDI inflows (especially through MNCs) has increased for the EMEs. Many EMEs see the FDI inflows as a major channel for the economic development and technology diffusion so they compete with each other to attract more FDI inflows from the developed countries. Alper Sönmez in his study Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to EMEs analyzes the net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to EMEs in detail on a country and regional basis between 2000 and 2015 by using the World Bank data. In his study, analysis of the FDI inflows to EMEs is performed in two ways: first, the FDI inflows as current US$ and second, the FDI inflows as percentage of GDP. His study discovers a steady increase in FDI inflows to EMEs over the whole period. Also, his findings explore that Asian region has gained increasing importance in terms of FDI inflows, while the importance of both European and Latin American regions has decreased. In addition, his study reveals that Europe region was more adversely affected by the 2008 global crisis when compared to Asian and Latin American regions. His study also provides evidence that China in Asia, Brazil in Latin America, and Russia in the European region have a dominant role in attracting the FDI inflows. Moreover, his results show that the share of EMEs in World FDI inflows indicates an increasing trend over the whole period. He also explores that Chile in Latin America, Indonesia in Asia, and Turkey in the European region have gained more importance in recent years in terms of attracting the FDI inflows when economic size is taken into consideration.

Monetary Policies in EMEs is analyzed by Selen Işık Maden and Aykut Sezgin. In their study, they argue that the growth performances are closely related to the monetary policies. They propose that EMEs have high growth potentials, although they have weak institutional structures, low levels of credibility, and ←17 | 18→shallow financial systems. Moreover, they discuss that some of the EMEs have managed to integrate into developed markets over the last decades and have had high growth performances. They argue that Central Banks of EMEs that apply monetary policies face various operational and technical constraints. Their study provides a short history of Central Banking together with the monetary policy targets. They also discuss the constraints which EMEs face in achieving these targets. They analyze foreign exchange regimes and monetary transmission mechanism of the EMEs before and after the 2008 global financial crisis in order to discuss the applications and their effects on EMEs.

Nazan Şahbaz Kılınç in her study Labor Force Participation in EMEs investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on labor force participation. Her study examines the changes occurring in the structure of employment and labor participation rate in EMEs. Also, she evaluates the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the employment in the light of various indicators. Her study adopts a comparative analysis of EMEs. Her findings show that LFPRs of EMEs are below the average of both developed countries and world countries for 2003–2014. Also, she concludes that LFPRs remained at 65–67 % in EMEs, while LFPRs in developed countries remained at 70–72 %.

References

IFC (2016). Establishing ‘Emerging Markets’, https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/corp_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/about+ifc_new/ifc+history/establishing-emerging-markets (Last Access Date: 18.07.2016).

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2015). World Economic Outlook, Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/pdf/text.pdf (Last Access Date: 15.06.2016).

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2016a). World Economic Outlook, Frequently Asked Questions, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/faq.htm#q4b (Last Access Date: 15.06.2016).

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2016b). World Economic Outlook, Too Slow for Too Long, https://www.imf.org/~/media/Websites/IMF/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/pdf/_textpdf.ashx (Last Access Date: 15.06.2016).

Details

Pages: 332
Year: 2018
ISBN (PDF): 9783631766156
ISBN (ePUB): 9783631766163
ISBN (MOBI): 9783631766170
ISBN (Softcover): 9783631766149
DOI: 10.3726/b14784
Language: English
Publication date: 2018 (October)
Keywords: Economics Business and Management Growth politics Regional economics Industry structure Globalization
Published: Berlin, Bern, Bruxelles, New York, Oxford, Warszawa, Wien, 2018. 332 pp., 112 fig. b/w, 65 tables

Biographical notes

Alper Sönmez (Volume editor) Dilek Çetin (Volume editor)

Alper Sönmez is Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at Selçuk University. He was awarded his B.Sc. in Economics from Yıldız Technical University (YTU). He holds a Ph.D. degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU). Dilek Çetin is Associate Professor at Süleyman Demirel University. She received B.Sc. in Economics from Ankara University. She holds a Ph.D. degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU).

Issues in Emerging Market Economies

Summary

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Table Of Contents

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Biographical notes

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