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Venture Capital

Fund Certification, Performance Prediction and Learnings from the Past

Series:

Armin Höll-Steiner

This book contains three studies. The first study investigates the relationship between private equity investors and fund managers and how intermediaries can mitigate their agency problems. The incentive structure of three intermediary types and their behavior in signaling fund qualities to investors are studied theoretically. A recommendation which intermediary to consult is given. The second study presents a new statistical method to predict the performance distribution of venture capital direct investments. The accuracy of this method is investigated and compared to existing approaches. The third study is about the European venture capital market’s historic development before and after the internet bubble and reasons for the bad development especially after the bubble.

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List of Figures XIII

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List of Figures 2.1 Model structure concerning interpretation of p. The symbols used are as explained in the text and in the nomenclature . . 33 2.2 Certifier’s option tree. The symbols used are as explained in the text and in the nomenclature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.3 Illustration of p-γ combinations that lead to different rela- tionships between capital supply and demand. The symbols used are as explained in the text and in the nomenclature . . 47 2.4 Utility functions of investors and PEFs. The symbols used are as explained in the text and in the nomenclature . . . . 48 2.5 Overview of possible equilibrium p-γ combinations for a place- ment agent and a lead investor. The symbols used are as explained in the text and in the nomenclature . . . . . . . . 58 2.6 Utility function and relevant set of p-γ combinations for place- ment agents. The symbols used are as explained in the text and in the nomenclature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 3.1 Example Distribution Pattern of Investment IRRs and Ap- proaches Applied to Predict Different Parts of the Distribu- tion Pattern in the Current Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 3.2 Illustration how CPV Based Approach and CREM Based Ap- proach are Used to Estimate the Default Probability of an Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3 Comparison of the Distribution of Investments over Time be- tween the CEPRES Dataset and the VentureXpert Database 116 XIV List of Figures 3.4 Distribution Pattern of Performance (IRR) of Venture Capi- tal Investments between 1985 and 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 3.5 Functional Form of Partial Effects of Covariates in Speci...

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