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A Structural Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan

Series:

Mirza Nomman Ahmed

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

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Annex

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A.) Outlier analysis – studentized residuals: 316 .8862448 Lower Dir .8532006 Islamabad .8437145 Abbottabad .7484037 Kohistan .7162943 Karak lev district 5 highest observations on lev . hilo lev district, show(5) high 8** 53,86 8** 44 7** 7** 11,16,48 6** 6** 15,33 5** 78,91 5** 38 4** 63,72 4** 06,34,49 3** 54,60,73,74,78,81,87 3** 00,01,11,13,19,31,32,37,38 2** 50,51,56,57,64,75,76,83,91 2** 00,03,07,07,08,10,11,12,20,21,22,28,35,39,39,43,47,49 1** 53,55,60,64,64,64,72,72,73,77,77,79,80,82,82,83,85,90,92 1** 00,04,04,06,10,14,17,20,22,23,25,26,27,28,29,33,37,37,38,39, ... (27) 0** 70,79,83,91,95 plot in units of .001 lev rounded to nearest multiple of .001 Stem-and-leaf plot for lev (Leverage) B.) Leverage – Analysis: 317 Leverage versus Residual plot: 318 C.) Measures of overall influence: COOK’s D and DFITS: Cook’s D: 319 DFITS: -2.159476 Karachi dfit district 3349 0 0 0 1 4.679744 0 26.00833 2.66125 .485876 .27 cl fl rk rg SQRTru~f SQRTrdi SQRTFl~a runoff~p SQRTtr~v roaddens 1725 7.935587 4.49981 -5.44709 -60.72373 3687.371 -7.85175 61.64997 -20.24137 409.713 . THDI LNpop_~m LOGele~n CENTlat~e CENTspr~m CENTsp~² Cjunjul~P Cjunj~P² RABCGROW RABCGR~² CEN 28.40015 6.13427 37.62926 11.27621...

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