Climate Change as a Threat to Peace

List of Abbreviations

← 8 | 9 → Sabine von Schorlemer & Sylvia Maus^∗

Reflections on Climate Change,
Heritage and Peace

IClimate Change as a Threat to Peace

“Does Climate Change Kill People in Darfur?”¹ – The question is striking, but the title of a 2011 journal article captures the quintessence of a vivid and topical debate over the impacts of man-made climate change on international peace and security. Influential voices such as the UN Secretary-General² and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)³ have established a direct link between the armed conflict and climate change, notably for the conflict in Darfur.⁴ A commentary of the International Institute for Strategic Studies partly attributes the Arab Spring to climate change.⁵ And the well-known Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change purports that “climate-related shocks have sparked violent conflict in the past”.⁶

← 9 | 10 → However, the patterns of correlation and causation are far from being firmly established and both critics and proponents of a conception of “climate change as conflict catalyst” are still wrestling with the problem.7 While the link between scarcity of natural resources and conflict has long been established,⁸ the claim that the “potential for the changing climate to induce conflict or exacerbate existing instability (…) is now recognized”⁹ should be approached with caution. Critics argue that even though “there is unquestionably a general causal connection (...), at least in the sense that climate change is a ‘threat multiplier’”,¹⁰ it is difficult to establish a clear causal link between climate change and conflict.¹¹ Indeed, in a long-term study ranging from 1990 to 2009, scholars examined climate-conflict relationships using data from over 16.000 violent events in East Africa (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania, and ← 10 | 11 → Uganda)12 and concluded that climate factors have a “modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors”.¹³ They continue that “our findings question the most simplistic climate–conflict narratives. The relationships between rainfall and temperature variability and violence are complex and warrant careful interpretation”.¹⁴

In 2007, the United Nations Security Council attended to the topic and held a high-level debate on climate change and international peace and security, addressing for the first time in this forum the potential impact of climate change on security.¹⁵ In a Statement by the President of the Security Council, the “Security Council expresses its concern that possible adverse effects of climate change may, in the long run, aggravate certain existing threats to international peace and security”.¹⁶ The 2009 Secretary-General Report Climate Change and its Possible Security Implications provides a noteworthy summary of issues relating to climate change and security and identifies five “channels through which climate change could affect security”:¹⁷

(a)Vulnerability: climate change threatens food security and human health, and increases human exposure to extreme events;

(b)Development: if climate change results in slowing down or reversing the development process, this will exacerbate vulnerability and could undermine the capacity of States to maintain stability;

(c)Coping and security: migration, competition over natural resources and other coping responses of households and communities faced with climate-related threats could increase the risk of domestic conflict as well as have international repercussions;

← 11 | 12 → (d)Statelessness: there are implications for rights, security, and sovereignty of the loss of statehood because of the disappearance of territory;

(e)International conflict: there may be implications for international cooperation from climate change’s impact on shared or undemarcated international resources.18

Equally, emerging threats which merit the attention of the international community are highlighted,¹⁹ namely loss of territory, statelessness and increased numbers of displaced persons,²⁰ stress on shared international water resources,²¹ and disputes surrounding the opening of the Arctic region to resource exploitation and trade.²²

Overall, the report echoes the prevalent perception that conceives of climate change as a threat multiplier, “exacerbating threats caused by persistent poverty, weak institutions for resource management and conflict resolution, fault lines ← 12 | 13 → and a history of mistrust between communities and nations, and inadequate access to information or resources”.23