China's Interest in Central Asia

The Central Asian region, comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has experienced a significant elevation in international stature following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This geopolitical shift marks a departure from the erstwhile marginalization of these nations, situating them at the forefront of contemporary geopolitical discourse. The transition is particularly evident in the context of Sir Halford Mackinder’s “Heartland Theory,” which posits the strategic superiority of land power over sea power, a perspective highly relevant to the geographically pivotal Central Asian region.

The political metamorphosis within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Eurasian geopolitical frameworks proposed by figures such as former national security adviser Brzezinski and scholar Huntington have painted a complex picture of the region (Scheffran, 2023). It suggests potential risks to the region’s ethnic and political stability, prompting caution from international actors such as the United States, particularly considering Central Asia’s substantial oil wealth juxtaposed with its dilapidated infrastructure and economic uncertainties.

The “big power game” concept has become a prevalent lens through which the socioeconomic trajectory of Central Asia is viewed (Panda, 2020). The strategic importance of the Caspian Sea to U.S. energy security, for instance, has significantly influenced American grand strategy in the twenty-first century. It encompasses exerting influence over regional energy resources and monitoring potential geopolitical competitors, notably China and Russia.

Further emphasizing the geopolitical dimension foregrounds the influence of Russia and Kazakhstan in the region. It advocates for a synthesis of traditional geopolitics with geo-economics, reflecting a dynamic interplay as social structures evolve. The perspective offers a nuanced understanding of Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape, highlighting the region’s role within the global economic power structure and its implications for global stability and human habitation.

A notable development in the scholarly discourse is the recognition of a trend toward critically evaluating the applicability of various geopolitical models and strategies (Akbari, 2023). This scrutiny underscores the notion that geopolitical models often serve specific interests, suggesting that Western geopolitical strategies may sometimes prioritize their interests over the broader developmental needs of Central Asian countries. This imbalance raises questions about the extent to which Western policies adequately consider the region’s economic and democratic development needs.

Energy security, a term of relatively recent coinage in the global lexicon, denotes a nation’s ability to ensure a consistent, adequate, and economically sustainable supply of energy (Strojny et al., 2023). In the geopolitical and economic strategies of both energy-producing and consuming nations, oil plays a pivotal role, often employed as a strategic tool. This is exemplified by the case of China, which, since the economic reforms of the 1980s, has witnessed rapid economic growth accompanied by a substantial increase in oil consumption (Brandt & Rawski, 2020). In the first three quarters of 2023, China saw a notable increase in its fuel oil imports, reaching a total of 17.38 million metric tons. This figure represents a significant surge compared to the same period in the previous year, which recorded 7.65 million metric tons, more than doubling the import volume (Xu & Zhou, 2023).

Despite efforts to boost local production, China’s domestic oil supply lags its burgeoning demand, bringing energy security to the forefront of its international development agenda (Koga, 2023). Consequently, formulating a comprehensive energy security policy, particularly in the context of Central Asia, has become imperative for China.

The concept of “Greater Central Asia” is fluid, potentially encompassing a broader geographical scope that includes, among others, the Khorasan regions of Iran, parts of northern Pakistan and Mongolia, and specific Russian territories such as Tatarstan, as well as areas in northern India (Stephan & Schröder, 2018).

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI), has been a transformative element in regional geopolitical dynamics since its inception in 2013 (Wolf, 2021). CPEC represents a multifaceted project encompassing industrialization, connectivity, energy generation, and trade development. Its primary objective is to establish a terrestrial link between Pakistan and Western China, providing access to the Gwadar port in Baluchistan. This port is primarily designed to cater to the needs of China and Central Asian nations.