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Stable and Sustainable Growth of a Large Open Economy

An Empirical Study of China

by Xiaojin Zhang (Author) Shiying Liu (Translation)
©2025 Monographs XXIV, 282 Pages

Summary

This book analyzes the basic theories of new open economy macroeconomics, economic growth and policy choices in openness. It discusses the economic distortions in international capital flows and the mechanism through which shocks are amplified to affect macroeconomic stability, and the international correlation of China’s economic cycle. In addition, it highlights the macroeconomic impact of government expenditure on improving people’s well-being and the essential role of public goods and services provision. Finally, it investigates optimal wealth distribution and the corresponding social welfare function, offering valuable theoretical and practical contributions to the study of openness and macroeconomic stability.

Table Of Contents

  • Cover Page
  • Title Page
  • Copyright Page
  • Table of Contents
  • List of Figures
  • List of Tables
  • Preface
  • Chapter 1 Economic Growth and Policy Choice in China’s “Opening-Up” Period
  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Trade-Oriented Strategy and Economic Growth
  • 1.3 Capital Formation Under the Condition of Labor Transfer
  • 1.4 Distortion and Risk Accumulation of Trade and Capital Formation Mechanism
  • 1.5 A Policy “Mix” with a New “Opening-Up”
  • Chapter 2 International Capital Flows, Economic Distortions, and Macro Stability
  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Patterns of International Capital Flow and Non-FDI
  • 2.3 Capital Flow Impact, Policy Response, and Economic Distortions
  • 2.4 Capital Flows and Macro Stability Model with “Distortion” Factors
  • 2.5 Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
  • Chapter 3 International Correlation of China’s Economic Cycle
  • 3.1 Introduction and Relevant Literature
  • 3.2 International Correlation of China’s GDP Cycle: Two Types
  • 3.3 Method and Data
  • 3.4 The International Correlation of China’s GDP Cycle: Empirical Analysis and Comparison
  • 3.5 International Trade and Common Factors
  • 3.6 Correlation and Decoupling: Further Analysis
  • 3.7 Conclusion
  • Chapter 4 External Shocks and Internal Inflation in China
  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Globalization and Inflation: Literature Review
  • 4.3 External Shocks to China’s inflation: Mechanisms and “Featured Facts”
  • 4.4 Econometric Analysis
  • 4.5 Conclusions and Recommendations for Policy Makers
  • Chapter 5 Real Estate Cycle and Financial Stability
  • 5.1 A Rough Division of China’s Real Estate Cycle
  • 5.2 Driving Factors of the New Real Estate Cycle
  • 5.3 Quantitative Analysis
  • 5.4 Real Estate Cycle and Financial Stability
  • 5.5 Conclusion and Policy Recommendation
  • Chapter 6 Empirical Analysis of Cross-Border Capital Flows: A Case Study of the “Hong Kong Path”
  • 6.1 Introduction
  • 6.2 Channels and Scale of Cross-Border Capital Flows between Hong Kong and the Mainland
  • 6.3 Analysis of Influencers of the Capital Flow Between Hong Kong and the Mainland
  • 6.4 An Econometric Analysis
  • 6.5 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
  • Chapter 7 The Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Stock Markets in the Mainland and Hong Kong
  • 7.1 Introduction
  • 7.2 The Performance of the Stock Markets in the Mainland and Hong Kong: Stylized Facts and Basic Observations
  • 7.3 Taking Stock of Relevant Literature
  • 7.4 Data and Methods
  • 7.5 Results
  • 7.6 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
  • Chapter 8 Global Imbalances and Financial Crises: A Perspective of Monetary Hegemony
  • 8.1 From Imbalances to Crises: A Historical Review
  • 8.2 Literature Review: Traditional and New Perspectives
  • 8.3 A Big-Country Model of Imbalance and Crisis: A Perspective of Monetary Hegemony
  • 8.4 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
  • Chapter 9 China’s National Comprehensive Liabilities and Market-Oriented Reform
  • 9.1 Literature Review and the Characteristics of This Study
  • 9.2 Overall Estimation and Dynamic Changes of National Comprehensive Liabilities
  • 9.3 Risk Measurement of National Comprehensive Liabilities
  • 9.4 Risk Disposition of National Comprehensive Liabilities and Market-Oriented Reform
  • 9.5 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
  • Chapter 10 Growth Imbalance and Government Responsibility: A Perspective of Social Expenditure
  • 10.1 Government Responsibility: Historical and Theoretical Perspectives
  • 10.2 Government Social Expenditure: Status quo and Problems
  • 10.3 Government Social Expenditure, Human Capital Accumulation, and Growth
  • 10.4 Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
  • Chapter 11 Optimal Wealth Distribution and Harmonious Social Welfare Function
  • 11.1 Introduction
  • 11.2 Consumer Preference, Gini Coefficient, and Optimal Wealth Distribution
  • 11.3 Conclusion
  • References
  • Epilogue

Preface

1. Two Facets of an Open Economic Catch-up

China’s opening-up could be a double-edged sword: On the one hand, an open China is integrated into and gains benefits from the system of globalization. It is driven to carry out or deepen its domestic reform as a positive impact and an encouraging experience in its miracle of growth. On the other hand, stable growth can be affected or even threatened by negative shocks from the outside world. For example, the Latin American debt crisis and the Asian financial crisis are believed to have been at least partially triggered by their opening-up, although internal factors should primarily be held responsible. The so-called middle-income trap is now interpreted by more scholars from the perspective of opening-up. The seemingly stable domestic systems with insufficient resilience may be poorly responsive to, malfunction, or even collapse under marginalization of international division of labor or volatile impact of international capital flows and financial turbulence or crisis, leading to economic stagnation or even regression. Moreover, an open economy will rely more on the outside world, inviting a wolf into the house and bringing new threats to the industrial and supply chains under some extreme circumstances. Therefore, the impact on domestic sustainable and stable growth in the era of globalization is a real issue the macroeconomic administrators, or governors must face.

When open to the outside world, developing countries can access more advanced knowledge, technology, systems, management, or “best practices,” etc., getting on a faster track of growth and finally catching up, achieving convergence, that is, close per capital income with the developed economics. On the other hand, however, this process will inevitably result in distorted factor prices, prioritized key industries, financial repression, forced saving, preference of consumption to investment, tariff protection, capital control, and other distortions. These distortions, represented by forced government intervention, as well as implicit government guarantee and the potential moral hazards of market entities including state-owned economic sectors, corporate local governments, and some local government-backed private sectors can give rise to more risks, thus affecting economic stability and hindering sustainable growth. How to properly response to these two faces of a catching-up economy, namely, how to minimize distortions and achieve sustainable growth while striving to catch up with a developed economy, is a major test for state governors.

The coming chapters will show us how an open China is building up risks in development due to various distortions while benefiting from the globalization. This process sees subtle tensions between rapid growth and sustainable growth. A country generally pursues “a faster speed” in the early stage of catching up with the developed economies, as demonstrated by a host of our policy slogans. Nevertheless, this “faster speed” may make the country more unstable, warning us to pay more attention to the sustainability of growth. Although China benefited from the so-called “great moderation” and did not become “more unstable” from 2001 to 2007 since its accession to the WTO, it had to “repay the price” when more risks built up under the new normal of “dealing with the slowdown in economic growth, making difficult structural adjustments, and absorbing the effects of previous economic stimulus policies.” The United States finally ascended to the world’s top economy after an average annual growth of 3% for over one hundred years. For China’s future growth, the concern for sustainability will be more significant than that for growth rate. This is likely one of the key points in understanding and adapting to the new normal of the economy. Of course, growth needs to be continuous; a sudden fall or a sharp fluctuation in growth would also find the society and economy to their costs. Therefore, both speed and sustainability must be taken into consideration in an economy to be healthily developed.

Details

Pages
XXIV, 282
Publication Year
2025
ISBN (PDF)
9783034357692
ISBN (ePUB)
9783034357708
ISBN (Hardcover)
9783034356077
DOI
10.3726/b22765
Language
English
Publication date
2026 (February)
Keywords
Zhang Xiaojing Stable and Sustainable Growth of a Large Open Economy Optimal Wealth Distribution Open Economy Macroeconomics Economic Distortions Government Social Expenditures International Financial Crisis Cross-Border Financial Flows Financial Stability External Shocks Real Estate Cycle
Published
New York, Berlin, Bruxelles, Chennai, Lausanne, Oxford, 2025. XXIV, 282 pp., 57 b/w ill., 47 tables.
Product Safety
Peter Lang Group AG

Biographical notes

Xiaojin Zhang (Author) Shiying Liu (Translation)

ZHANG Xiaojing, is a Professor of Economics and Director of National Institution for Finance & Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS); Member of Chinese Economists 50 Forum; Member of China Finance 40 Forum. Prof. Zhang is also the recipient of prestigious awards such as SUN Yefang Financial Innovation Prize for 2015, SUN Yefang Economics Prize for 2005 and 2007, and the First prize for Beijing’s 17th Outstanding Achievements in Philosophy and Social Sciences. He actively participated in the research and consultant work on China’s 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th Five-Year Plan. He is in charge of the Center for National Balance Sheets (CNBS) which is the only institution that releases the annual data for China’s National assets and liabilities. He was a Visiting Professor at Harvard and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 2006-2007; and a Visiting Fellow at Stockholm School of Economics, from 1999-2000. His research interests are macroeconomics, macro-finance, and development economics.

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Title: Stable and Sustainable Growth of a Large Open Economy