The Dynamics of Turkish Foreign Policy: Key Concepts and Strategic Approaches

Dr. Ozan Örmeci is a Full Professor of Political Science at Uskudar University. He received his PhD from Bilkent University in 2011 with a dissertation on the famous Turkish social democrat politician and former Foreign Minister İsmail Cem. Over the years, he has held academic positions at Uşak University, Girne American University (North Cyprus/TRNC), Beykent University, Istanbul Gedik University, Istanbul Kent University, and Istanbul Aydın University. He was promoted to Full Professor in August 2024. He is currently affiliated with Üsküdar University in Istanbul. Prof. Dr. Örmeci has authored and edited numerous scholarly books and volumes on Turkish Foreign Policy, international relations, and comparative politics. Key titles include Turkish Foreign Policy in the New Millennium (Peter Lang, 2015), Historical Examinations and Current Issues in Turkish-American Relations (Peter Lang, 2020), Turkish-French Relations (Springer, 2022), Turkish-American Relations in the 21st Century (Lexington Books, 2024), and Türkiye-Britain Relations (Lexington Books, 2024). He also writes on global powers such as the United States, Russia, China, and the EU. In addition to his academic work, he serves as the General Coordinator of the International Political Academy (UPA) and is the editor of the UPA Strategic Affairs academic journal. He publishes in both Turkish and English and is fluent in French and English.

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As a Political Scientist, my interest and familiarity with Turkish Foreign Policy literature began with my research on the esteemed statesman and thinker İsmail Cem (1940–2007), whom I determined as my thesis topic during my doctorate studies at Bilkent University. Cem, who was essentially a left-leaning journalist and intellectual, eventually entered active politics and led Turkish Foreign Policy as Minister of Foreign Affairs for many years. In this context, while studying his ideas and life, I naturally began to research Turkish Foreign Policy and adopt him as a role model.

After I started academic life and actively teaching, I realised that foreign policy in Türkiye was directed by state elites without knowing and teaching international law norms and completely focused on domestic politics, and I realised that I needed to do more serious work on this issue. I realised that although Türkiye is a very important state that observes and protects the balances in the international system, it may not be right on every issue and that the system can produce decisions against us on some issues. In this context, I have produced international and national academic books and articles on many different areas regarding Turkish Foreign Policy (Turkish-American relations, Türkiye-France relations, Türkiye-Britain relations, Türkiye-Germany relations, Türkiye-Russia relations, Türkiye-EU relations, Türkiye-China relations, Türkiye-Azerbaijan relations, Türkiye-TRNC relations, Türkiye’s energy policy, Türkiye’s soft power, Türkiye’s defence strategy, etc.). The work I have done on the International Politics Academy/UPA (<politikaakademisi.org>) website with my valuable young colleagues and students has also made quite an impact and continues to do so. My academic publications and internet-based studies have attracted considerable attention over time and have sometimes been criticised. In fact, my aim was to keep these issues on the agenda, to raise the awareness of the Turkish public and people, and to provide a source for future discussions. Looking back, I see that I have already managed to create a considerable academic literature, and I think that this will develop further in the coming years.

At this point, I would like to share some of my findings with you. First of all, Türkiye, as a very young state founded just a century ago after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, has been generally successful in its foreign policy to date. Ankara, which achieved serious successes such as the Treaty of Lausanne, the Montreux Straits Convention, and the annexation of Hatay to the homeland during the single-party period, has managed to advance in many areas such as membership in Western (Council of Europe and NATO) and international (primarily the United Nations) institutions, creating a respected and serious image, socioeconomic development, industrial and technological advancement, and military power in the following years. Türkiye also achieved a military success in the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation and its almost five-decade-old fight against terrorism (mainly ASALA and PKK) and became the most powerful state in its region – together with Russia, Israel, and Iran. Today, Türkiye, as a young state, founded a century ago, is a real giant in its region and one of the rare actors without whom the game cannot be set up.

However, it is not always easy to maintain the balance between membership in Western institutions and Türkiye’s national interests. As a superpower that demands unconditional obedience, the United States (US) is not always supportive of Türkiye’s own initiatives/initiatives and can often be a hindrance. The European Union (EU), on the other hand, lacks the capacity to transform Türkiye and is reluctant to do so due to Türkiye’s big size and prejudices and fears of millions of Muslim Turks in Europe. Another problematic issue is the capacity. Türkiye does not yet have the full socioeconomic power, technology, and human (social) capital necessary to achieve its ambitious goals. This was best demonstrated by the Syria adventure undertaken during the Arab Spring and was an important lesson for all of us although in the end Ankara was able to topple the Assad regime. Considering that regional studies, think-tanks, and the defence industry are still newly formed in Türkiye, this situation is very natural. Another serious problem is that Türkiye is deprived of the legal basis to defend some of its just causes (the Cyprus Conflict, etc.) within the United Nations (UN) order in the international system. Although these factors sometimes push Türkiye to act outside the rules and the system, it is always necessary to be within the ‘game’.

Türkiye, due to its structural conditions, is not a superpower successor like Russia, which is rich in energy and can stand on its own, or an autarkic state like North Korea, which can stand completely closed to the outside world. Similarly, Türkiye does not have the extraordinary population advantage of India with a population of 1.4 billion and China with a population of 1.3 billion. Türkiye is not yet a giant industrial and technological country like the United States, Britain, France, Germany, or China. In that sense, Türkiye is a state that develops with trade and can only stand as long as it produces. Therefore, while it is understandable for Türkiye to show that it can occasionally step outside the system and to demand certain privileges/exemptions from the system and key actors in this context, remaining completely outside the system is not a situation that will be in Ankara’s favour. As a state that is deprived of energy, has economic problems, and has never fully managed to democratise, Türkiye can be more successful and prosperous to the extent that it is in line with Western and international institutions and other states. For example, to put it concretely, even if the view that lies in everyone’s heart regarding the Cyprus Conflict is the independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), its recognition by other states, and even its unification with Türkiye, this situation cannot happen unless the international system is changed. Moreover, this could bring Türkiye’s political and economic relations with Western countries to the breaking point and drag the country into great economic destruction and internal turmoil. However, if Türkiye’s grand strategy is to be in this direction, a new foreign policy and industrial strategy focused on the Turkic States, the Islamic world, Russia, China, and the global south countries should be adopted without delay. That is because Türkiye has some dependencies that shape its foreign policy. To put it simply, these can be summarised as dependency on Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran in energy, European countries and the EU in economics/trade, and the United States in military technology and geopolitics.