Stuck in the Semi-Periphery?

List of Figures

Figure 1: Map of European countries referred to here as Central Europe

Figure 2: Spread of the Industrial Revolution in Europe

Figure 3: US crude oil first purchase price (in dollars per barrel) from 1974 to 2023

Figure 4: Schematic illustration of climate policy-making in the EU

Figure 5: Annual economic losses caused by weather- and climate-related extreme events in EU member states

Figure 6: Predictions of cumulative costs in response to specific challenges (as percentages of GDP): Modelling results to 2030

Figure 7: Tax revenue (% of GDP) in Central European countries

Figure 8: Cumulative CO₂ emissions globally and in the EU, USA, India and China (1750–2023)

Figure 9: Projection of the necessary trend to meet the EU 27 goals by 2030 and 2050 (kt CO₂ eq)

Foreword

There is perhaps no better illustration of the absurd system we live in than the Arctic region. While climate experts point to catastrophic events and the rapid acceleration of climate change due to melting ice, others see emerging business opportunities in shipping and potential access to rich deposits of oil, gas, and rare earth metals – driven by demand from the manufacturing of military equipment, electric cars, and wind turbines. The paradox of climate change is that as the planet heats up, more money can be made from these opportunities – but for how long? This book aims to help us understand how we reached this point and what alternatives exist from a Central European perspective. Central Europe’s journey – from the struggles of industrialisation to the political shifts of the 1990s and its subsequent integration into the European Union – serves as a lens through which we can better comprehend both global and local climate change challenges.

The point of departure is that if we want to address adverse climate trends, we need to understand the world we have built. This book critically assesses the intersection of geopolitics, capitalism, and environmental policy, offering a nuanced discussion of the contradictions inherent in the current system. It explores key issues such as the tension between the systemic need for economic growth – often pursued regardless of ecological limits – the imbalance between public and private interests, and the geopolitical challenges of achieving climate neutrality. The role of the European Union’s Green Deal and its impact on Central Europe are discussed in depth, particularly regarding competitiveness, security, and the socio-economic consequences of decarbonisation. A recurring question in this book – perhaps an idealistic one – is this: Is it possible, and at what cost, to shift away from a system based on competition, overproduction, and overconsumption toward one grounded in sustainability and capable of addressing climate change? Or is the more realistic scenario one of growing inequalities, insecurity, and a relentless march toward climate catastrophe?

List of Abbreviations

CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

COMECON The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance

ECB European Central Bank

EC European Commission

ECA European Court of Auditors

EEA European Environment Agency

EGD European Green Deal

ETS Emissions Trading System

EU European Union

IPPC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

REACH Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals

TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity

UNDESA Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

US United Stated of America

WCED World Commission on Environment and Development

WEF World Economic Forum

Introduction

The idea for this book has been developing for some time, but the definitive impetus came from watching the debate between John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs at the All-In Summit 2024. This clash of ideas between two leading global thinkers – Mearsheimer, who described the iron logic of geopolitics leading to competition and conflict, and Sachs, who advocated for a vision of a world built on cooperation and sustainability in the face of global challenges – highlighted the widening gap between where we need to go and where we are currently heading. While there has undoubtedly been significant progress in climate policy over recent decades – from the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Rio Summit, to the Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement – global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, pushing us closer to a catastrophic outcome.

The changing situation in the Arctic region illustrates the logic of the system we’ve built. While climate experts point to the catastrophic real-time events and the acceleration of climate change caused by melting ice, others see emerging business opportunities – in shipping, which rose by 37 % over the decade leading up to 2024, or in the potential access to rich deposits of oil, gas, and rare earth metals. The demand for rare earth metals, essential for manufacturing military equipment, electric cars, and wind turbines, further exacerbates this paradox. Climate change, in this context, opens yet another space for geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia, backed by China. The 2024 ridiculous demand of the newly elected American president to take over control of Greenland points to geopolitical threats we are facing in the future but may also reflect deeper structural problems of Western capitalism.