Edited By Elżbieta Czarny, Andżelika Kuźnar and Jerzy Menkes
This book gathers Polish and foreign scholars to consider diverse aspects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). It examines key general areas such as the improvement of the position of the negotiating parties in the world economy, in politics and in international organisations. The contributors analyze possible acceleration of non-discriminatory liberalisation negotiations, creation of new international standards or reducing regulatory differences, such as «Investor-state dispute settlement» (ISDS), public health, geographical indications. The contributions focus also on specific issues, such as the impact of TTIP on Polish and EU economy, on merchandise and services trade, energy supply, research and development, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), or on the third parties.
Chapter 6. Will Polish Exports Be Affected by Trade Diversion Resulting from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership?
In this chapter1, we analyse the potential substitution of Polish goods exported to the EU with American goods after tariffs are eliminated within the framework of the TTIP (the so-called trade diversion effect). We believe that this effect will be limited only to a small number of commodity groups; nonetheless, it will be present. The main reason for this expectation are the different structures of Polish and American exports to the EU. The survey reviews data from 2014, which is the last year that annual data were available during the research period. Statistics for the HS2 classification come from TRAINS (tariffs) and COMTRADE (exports) databases. The remainder of this chapter contains an analysis of Polish and American exports of the EU’s most tariff-protected product groups and EU tariff protection of the top Polish export products, including their positions against US exports.
In the analyses, we assume that the EU that buys Polish goods has 27 Member States (EU-28 minus Poland) and, at the same time, the EU that trades with the US has 28 members (as it is at present).
1. Polish and American exports of the EU’s most tariff-protected product groups
In the first part of this chapter, we examine the shares of Polish and American exports to the EU of fifteen of the Union’s most tariff-protected HS2 product groups (Table 1). Because the top ten commodity groups consist only of agri-food products, we present a top-fifteen list and include manufactured...
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