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Internationale Studien zur Geschichte von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft

Teil 1 und Teil 2

Edited By Karl von Hardach

Wirtschafts- und Sozialhistoriker – gut eine halbe Hundertschaft aus zwölf Ländern – bieten einen bunten Strauß ihrer akademischen Arbeiten von der Antike bis zur Gegenwart. Zu Worte kommen Professoren und Praktiker (Anwälte und Archivare, Beamte und Bankiers, Gymnasiallehrer und Geschäftsleute – alle mit einem Herzen für die Historie). Sie bieten Einblicke in die Breite und Tiefe wirtschafts- und sozialgeschichtlicher Untersuchungen und belegen Methodenvielfalt und Darstellungsmannigfaltigkeit wie sie heute weltweit praktiziert werden. Der Band enthält Beiträge in deutscher und englischer Sprache.


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Forecasting World Trends During the 2010s: Erich W. Streissler


1057 Forecasting World Trends During the 2010s1 Erich W. Streissler 1. Preliminary Remarks 1.1 This essay is devoted to the daunting task of a long-run forecast of the eco- nomic development of the developed and the rapidly developing part of the world for the next ten or fifteen years. Forecasting is highly hazardous work. After giving my students a number of instances of my successful forecasts I tell them my actual forecasting experience is rather good: I have been correct in about 52-55 out of 100 cases! Certainly, the reader will have to think through critically each one of my seven forecasts and to pass judgement whether they are likely to be among the 52-55 percent correct cases or rather among the 45-48 percent likely failures. I divide my forecasting scenario into two parts: I shall deal first with a real macroeconomic forecast and then with the monetary developments. Behind that is a central premise: the idea that the real and the monetary side of development are only loosely connected. In other words, that the real and the monetary side of the economy are rela- tively independent from each other. In this, I follow the notions propounded by Robert Mundell in his Nobel Lecture, “A Reconsideration of the Twentieth Cen- tury” which showed that the 20th century history of the USA had been one long series of misguided monetary policy mistakes with relatively small effects on real growth rates (at least those effects were not felt till several decades later,...

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