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Global Change and Regional Agricultural Land Use

Impact Estimates for the Upper Danube Basin Based on Scenario Data from European Studies

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Alexander Wirsig

This work investigates the impacts of Global and Climate Change on agricultural land use in the Upper Danube basin by using different scenario calculations with a regional non-linear agricultural sector model. The objective of the current study is to assess the economic and ecological impact of Global and Climate Change on regional agricultural land use in Europe by means of a regional case study for the Upper Danube basin. Key questions are: What are the short term impacts of climate change on agriculture for the next decade? What impacts are expected in the long run? What are the short term impacts on agriculture for the next decade taking into account socio-economic changes (agricultural policy, technological advance, prices)? Which scenario may be the least/most desirable with respect to the provision of ecosystem services by agriculture for a given region or farm type?
Contents: Agriculture in the Upper Danube Catchment – Regional effects of Global and Climate Change on agriculture up to 2020 – Economic modelling of agricultural land use changes – Development of regional agricultural land use scenarios – Liberalisation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) – Provision of public goods by agriculture – Potential adaptation strategies – Policy implications and perspectives.