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The Big Bet

Will the Turkish Accession to the EU Threaten the European Cohesion?

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Yiannos Charalambides

The main aim of this work is to examine whether Turkish accession to the EU will threaten EU cohesion or not. The evaluation of this process resulted in the formation of a set of factors-variables upon which a model of EU cohesion was established. Through the use of these factors-variables and having theories of International Relations as the theoretical carpet (Realism, Structural Realism, Functionalism, Neo-Functionalism), nine scenarios on Turkish accession to the EU in relation to EU cohesion were elaborated, ranging from ‘best case’ to ‘worst case scenario’ and also including the option of a ‘privileged partnership’. This work addresses the following controversial question: in case that Turkey joins the EU, will we have a ‘ European Turkey’ or a ‘ Turkish Europe’?
Contents: EU cohesion – Worst case scenario – EU cohesion model – Turkish accession – Privileged partnership – Crisis – Role of the US in Turkish accession – Structural changes – Turkish army – Redistribution of power – Soviet syndrome – Theory of the «three wedges».