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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation

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David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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C. UML diagrams of the Java implementation

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Figure C.1: The class Route encapsulates the ship instance and its functions to calculate ship propulsion power. Thus, Route provides functions to calculates routes, subroutes and the ship propulsion power for each route. The function calculateLEDM() calculates the Local Energy Distribution moments for the route.

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Figure C.2: The central Java class in the simulation is Route which is composed of a linked list of waypoints. Each waypoint is defined by its position, date and forecast horizon and the distance between two waypoints is calculated by the Orthodrome. Orthodromes are calculated based on a reference ellipsoid with a radius of 6.378 km and a flattening of (in accordance with the World Geodetic System 1984). A route contains an instance of class Ship to simulate the ship propulsion power. A route instance also provides its associated basins (i.e., oceans) and a list of Teleconnetction indices for these basins. Currently, only the NAOI is implemented for the North Atlantic basin.

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