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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation


David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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1. Introduction


Abstract: This chapter gives a short introduction to the problem of uncertainty in wind energy predictions (WEPs) and describes the new approach in this work to estimate WEP uncertainty.


1.1. Uncertainty in wind energy predictions

1.2. Approaches from the literature

1.1. Uncertainty in wind energy predictions

Since fossil energy resources are decreasing, efforts are made to replace them with regenerative energy resources. Examples are wind propulsion systems (WPSs) and wind energy generation. Yet so far there exist only few ships with WPS and the proportion of renewable energy sources in the European Union is only 8.5% (Klessmann et al., 2011). One of the reasons for this is weather-induced wind energy variability as shown in fig. 1.1.

Figure 1.1: Aggregate electricity demand in Denmark (West) vs. total hourly wind production. “1” indicates first hour of the day. Image & text: (Kunz et al., 2014, p. 161).

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