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Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation


David Zastrau

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

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2. Uncertainty in Wind Power Generation and Weather Routing


Abstract: This chapter gives an overview about prediction uncertainty in two offshore applications: ship weather routing and offshore wind power generation. Wind-assisted ship propulsion (WaSP) is discussed in this context. The importance of weather prediction uncertainty in both applications is described. An overview is given about limitations and trends in weather forecasting. Analogue weather forecasting is identified as a general approach to estimate uncertainty of predictions based on prediction uncertainty of historical weather predictions.


2.1. Weather prediction uncertainty in wind power generation (WPG)

2.1.1. Offshore wind power logistics

2.2. Prediction uncertainty in weather routing

2.2.1. Wind propulsion systems (WPS)

2.2.2. Speed power curve

2.2.3. Wind resistance

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