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Trends in Container Shipping

Proceedings of the ISL Maritime Conference 2008- 9 th and 10 th of December, World Trade Center Bremen

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Edited By Burkhard Lemper and Manfred Zachcial

In the tradition of the Liner Shipping Conferences in the eighties, the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics organised again a Maritime Conference in Bremen. The aim of the conference in December 2008 was to analyse and to forecast the trends and perspectives of the international container shipping market. The international shipping industry and the global container shipping market have recently seen some of the most successful years in history. Excellent employment and high charter rates initiated a very strong order boom, especially in the highest size classes of 8.000 TEU to 12.000 TEU vessels and beyond. This development of accelerated fleet expansion met a cooling down period in global economy as a consequence of the worldwide financial crisis. The implications for the international trade markets have also affected the shipping industry and the container shipping market. Against this background the main topics of the Maritime Conference 2008 were: World economy, trade and shipping; vessel size development and its implications; implications of market growth on ports and hinterland; financing and taxation aspects.

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6 Session IV – Financing and Taxation Aspects

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Chairman: Prof. Dr. Rolf W. Stuchtey, Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) 6.1 Re-Financing Aspects in Global Shipping Dr. Hans-Joachim Weinberger, Global Head Ship and Aircraft Finance, Norddeutsche Landesbank 6.1.1 Anatomy of a Crisis What happened to the financial sector? To summarize it in simple words: I believe we are victims of hubris caused on the one hand by scientific experts from the field of mathematics, statistics and physics and on the other hand by the simple greed of bank managers. It has been the close cooperation between promoting “alpha-male bankers” and ingenious scientists, delighted by the bankers' support which has created this explosive cocktail, bringing the world close to a disaster. This cocktail has been enriched by the accessibility of cheap hardware and software, providing the necessary data storage and processing capacity. Combined with intelligent analytical and modelling techniques as for example the Monte Carlo simulation, this mixture has proved itself almost as explosive as the H-Bomb. What is sometimes called “credit substitute business” (Kreditersatzgeschäft) has very little to do with the banking business. The intention has been to model a picture of the real world by simply omitting any distorting and time-consuming relationships to clients and replacing these with the “only and real truth” derived from these models. For example these models could provide default probabilities without having to take a close look at any “underlying” factors such as the inhuman description of the real society. Having said this, we can imagine the political implications of...

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