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A Structural Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan


Mirza Nomman Ahmed

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.


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4 Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture


Where the previous chapters have introduced the interrelationship between agricultural production and climate change, the following considerations intend to cover the aspects related to the assessment of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture. The economics of climate change is not yet well understood; especially the impacts for the agricultural sector are plagued by great uncertainty (KELLY AND KOLSTAD, 1999). The idea behind this review is to supplement previous deliberations made by various authors regarding the same issue such as ADAMS et al. (1998), KURUKULASURIYA AND ROSENTHAL (2003), CLINE (2007) AND MENDELSOHN AND DINAR (2009). A comparative approach will be followed in order to address the strengths and weaknesses of the respective methods. As the majority of scientists today agree, climate change is a fact and also most likely to occur in future. In an extensive study for the USA, 97% of the scientists agreed that climate change is a reality (ANDEREGG et al., 2010). The idea behind economic assessment or modeling is to uncover the effects that a change will have, with the intention to unveil and understand the costs that will arise from such a change with reference to adaptation and mitigation. Being a multifaceted phenomenon climate change demands multidisciplinary research attention. This multidisciplinary approach has been termed integrated assessment in the literature. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) have been defined in different ways. WEYANT et al. (1996) for instance have opted for a broad definition, namely ‘any model using knowledge from research in multiple disciplines’. KELLY AND...

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