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A Structural Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan

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Mirza Nomman Ahmed

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

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6 Standard Ricardian Model - Modifications and Application to Pakistan

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In this chapter, the final model specification shall be presented. Before estimating the specified model, a detailed account on the study area and the dataset is provided. In this context detailed summary statistics on a variable by variable basis are presented. After presenting the descriptive statistics the econometric estimation is described in detail including relevant misspecification tests. The results are discussed to reveal the sensitivity of agriculture to climatic change and quantify the economic impacts. The Standard Ricardian model is constructed using land values as the left hand side variable. 6.1 Study Area and Data Pakistan in total has eight administrative units of which four are official provinces and one is a federal capital territory, namely Islamabad. The provinces are Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (N.W.F.P) and Balochistan. The other units comprise the Federal Administrative Tribal Area (F.A.T.A.), Disputed Area with India and Azad Kashmir (Pakistani part of the disputed territory of Kashmir, the Indian part is known as Jammu & Kashmir). The capital of Islamabad is considered a part of the Punjab province. As second order administrative units the country currently has 114 districts in the above mentioned four principal provinces, with 30 of them in the Balochistan Province, 24 in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 38 (including Islamabad) in the Punjab province and 23 in the Sindh province. This study covers 96.5% of the country by analyzing 110 districts of Pakistan. The districts of Harnai and Sherani in the Balochistan province, the Chiniot district in the Punjab province and the Umerkot...

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