Asia-Pacific

Illustrations

Diagrams 1.1 and 1.2: Potential range of Chinese conventional and ballistic missiles

Diagram 1.3: Diagram of the process of the emergence of the international order according to S. Vucetic

Diagram 1.4: Trade agreements concluded between 1958 and 2004

Diagram 1.5: Sony’s foreign expansion in East Asia, 1960–2000

Diagram 3.1: Share of the largest economies in global GDP in 2003

Diagram 3.2: Asia’s share of global GDP, 1700–2050

Diagram 3.3: Organizational chart of the Chinese Communist Party (2022)

Diagram 3.4: Diagram of the THAAD defense system

Diagram 3.5: Photocopy of the text of the Trump-Kim Jong Un Joint Statement from Singapore (June 12, 2018)

Diagram 4.1: Gross Domestic Product Per Capita Purchasing Power Parity (constant 2017 international $) all ASEAN Members, 1993–2022

Diagram 4.2: Share of intra-APEC merchandise trade, 2014

Diagram 4.3: Trade agreement members, applicants, and interested applicants

Diagram 4.4: Income gains from alternative agreements (% of GDP)

Map 2.1: Polynesia, Micronesia, Melanesia

Map 2.2: Member nations of the Pacific Islands Forum

Map 3.1: Defense lines, referred to as the first, second and third island chains

Map 3.2: Senkaku (Diaoyu/Diaoyutai) Islands and surrounding region

Map 3.3: Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ) in the East China Sea region

Map 4.1: Trans-Pacific Partnership countries from the U.S. perspective (2013)

Map 4.2: Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

Map 4.3: Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), the 14 participating member nations

Map 4.4: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

Map 4.5: Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP)

Map 5.1: U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific and Australia

Map 5.2: Ganzorig Power of Siberia and Power of Siberia 2

Map 6.1: U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence in the Asia-Pacific region

Map 6.2: Region covering the countries belonging to the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)

Tables

Table 1.1: Countries of the Indo-Asia-Pacific region as seen by the Asia-Pacific Center in Honolulu

Table 1.2: International relations in the light of the three main schools of thought

Table 1.3: Theoretical perspectives on Asia’s international relations

Table 1.4: Schools of thought on the process of regional political integration

Table 1.5: Free trade agreements by country/economy in the Asia-Pacific region

Table 2.1: Trust territories and dependent areas in the Pacific region

Table 3.1: GDP in 1700–2003 (Asia, Europe, USA, world)

Table 3.2: Thucydides’ Trap: a summary of cases

Table 3.3: Chronology of the introduction and size of tariffs in China-U.S. trade

Table 4.1: ASEAN Free Trade Agreements in effect

Table 4.2: Measures of Physical Infrastructure for the ASEAN Member States

Table 6.1: Group of the largest shareholders of the AIIB (amount of funds in billion USD)

Abbreviations and Acronyms

ADB Asian Development Bank

AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area

AIDZ Air Defense Identification Zone

AIIB Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank

APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ARF ASEAN Regional Forum

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

ASEAN+3 ASEAN plus China, Japan, Republic of Korea

ASBM Anti-ship ballistic missile

ATIGA ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement

AUKUS Defence alliance between Australia, the UK and the US

AUSFTA Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement

BIT Bilateral investment treaties

BRI (China’s) Belt and Road Initiative

BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (bloc of countries)

CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation

CARD Co-ordinated Annual Review on Defense

CASS Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

CCP Chinese Communist Party

CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women

CEPA Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement

CETA EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement

CICA Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia

CICIR China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

CIIS China Institute of International Studies

COVAX COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access

CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy

CPTPP Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership

CETA Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement

CFIA Cooperation and Facilitation Investment Agreement

CTF Combined Task Force

CTI Committee on Trade and Investment (APEC)

DEA Digital Economy Agreement

DEPA Digital Economy Partnership Agreement

DOD Department of Defense

EAEU Eurasian Economic Union

EFTA European Free Trade Association

EBCG European Border and Coast Guard EGS European Global Strategy

EDCA Agreement on Enhanced Defense Cooperation (US-Philippines)

EII European Intervention Initiative

EMU Economic and Monetary Union

EP European Parliament

EPP European People’s Party

EU European Union

EUGS European Union Global Strategy

FDI Foreign direct investment

FOB Free onboard

FONOP Freedom of Navigation Operations

FTA Free trade agreement

FTAAP Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific

GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services

GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Gross domestic product Greenhouse gas

GPA Government Procurement Agreement

GSP Generalized system of preference

GSCNET APEC Cooperation Network on Green Supply Chain

ICSID International Centre for Settlement of Investment Dispute

ICT Information and Communications Technology

IIA International Investment Agreement

ILO International Labour Organization

IMF International Monetary Fund

INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty

IPR Intellectual property right

IPA Investment protection agreement

IRT International relation theories

ISD Investor-state dispute

ISDS Investor-state dispute settlement

ITA Information Technology Agreement

ITUC International Trade Union Confederation

ICANN Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers

ICC International Criminal Court

ISIL Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

ITU International Telecommunications Union

MEAs Multilateral environmental agreements

MERCOSUR Southern Common Market

METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

MFN Most favored nation

MOU Memorandum of understanding

MP Member of Parliament

MRA Mutual recognition agreement

NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement

NT National treatment

NDB New Development Bank

NSC National Security Council

OBOR One Belt, One Road (see BRI)

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

OIRA Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs

OPA Organization of American States

ORRC Other restrictive regulations of commerce

P3 CEP Pacific Three Closer Economic Partnership

P4 Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement

TPSEP Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement

PACER Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations

PESCO Permanent Structured Cooperation

PBS Price Band System

PDI Pacific Deterrence Initiative

PPP Purchasing Power Parity

PTAs Preferential trade agreements

RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

RIA Regulatory impact analysis

ROO Rules of origin

RTA Regional trade agreement

RVC Regional value content

R&D Research and development

SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area

SAPTA South Asia Preferential Trade Agreement

SAT Substantially all trade

SCSC Sub-Committee on Standards and Conformance

SCFAP Supply-Chain Connectivity Framework Action Plan

SDB WTO Statistics Database

SMEs Small and medium enterprises

SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

STAR Services Trade Access Requirements

STRI Services Trade Restrictiveness Index

SWFs Sovereign wealth funds

TBT Technical barriers to trade

TFTA Tripartite Free Trade Agreement

TM Transparency Mechanism

TPA Trade Promotion Authority

TPMs Technological protection mechanisms

TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership

TPSEP Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement

TPA Trade Reform, Accountability, Development, and Employment Act

TRIMs Trade Related Investment Measures

TRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights

TRQ Tariff rate quota

UNCTAD United Nations Conference for Trade and Development

UNCITRAL United Nations Commission on International Trade Law

UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

US United States of America

USAID United States Agency for International Development

USAMGIK U.S. Army Military Government in Korea

USTR United States Trade Representative

WCO World Customs Organization

WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization

USMCA US-Canada-Mexico Agreement

VA Value-added

WEN Wildlife Enforcement Network

WTO World Trade Organization

Acknowledgments

This monograph is the result of my fascination with Asia and, at the same time, inspiration from conversations with many distinguished experts on Asia and the Pacific, starting with my colleagues, representatives of the Polish diplomatic and consular service, who had served in diplomatic posts in the Asian region and brought their insights to the debate within the Polish diplomatic community, to which I also belonged for a long time. I am extremely grateful to them for their interesting observations and assessments concerning the region. Furthermore, I am full of admiration for the craftsmanship and expert knowledge they brought to the internal materials they prepared at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which were often circulated with a confidentiality clause within the highest state authorities. Some of them had experience working for the International Control and Supervision Commission in South Vietnam or the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission in Korea. The narrative of both the discussions and the aforementioned materials pointed to the extraordinary dynamics of Asia’s development and the implications this had for the outside world, including Europe and Poland. My later, but extremely important, personal encounters with Asia came through my membership of the Asia and Pacific Department of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Compared to other departments, this small group of colleagues was distinguished by their vast knowledge of the region, often supported by personal experience and an excellent command of Asian languages. Another important stage, because it had a significant impact on the creation of this monograph, was my stay in Southeast Asia and my work at the Polish embassy in Singapore as Head of the Economic Section responsible for economic and trade issues. Both my transfer to the Asia-Pacific Department and then my departure for diplomatic work in Singapore were largely accidental. The head of the ministry rejected my candidacy for the position of consul general in Irkutsk, and in this situation, the director of the department, Ambassador Tomasz Łukaszuk, found a position for me that was the post in Singapore. I am deeply grateful to both of them, because if the former had been more favorable, or the latter had suggested a different location, this monograph would not have been written. My first arrival in Singapore in September 2011 was a shock to me, first of all because of the temperature, as I had never been to the tropics before, but also because of the sight of the civilizational achievements of this city-state agglomeration, which at that time had a population of just over 5 million, even though I had undergone thorough preparation before my departure. The Lion City, as for many other expatriates, turned out to be a unique place for me as well. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the then Polish Ambassador to Singapore and my superior, Waldemar Dubaniowski, who gave me enormous support in adapting to the local diplomatic environment, as well as Maciej Jany, a representative of the local Polish community, who supported the Polish diplomats in housing matters. It turned out that my new place of residence and work offered an extremely rich opportunity to meet with world-renowned authorities in the fields of international relations, political science, economics, finance, and regional policy, including the best experts on Asia and the Pacific. The diplomatic corps of Singapore, as well as the local government administration, business organizations, think tanks, and research institutes, were all essential sources of knowledge for diplomats. I am grateful to all my interlocutors from during that period and would like to thank them sincerely for selflessly sharing their knowledge and personal experience with me, which sparked my growing interest and ultimately led me to undertake modest but authentic research and analytical work, followed by concrete actions, which resulted in this monograph.

Thus, monitoring the development of international relations, including the rapid growth of the Asia-Pacific region, became part of my professional duties, and the problems of the region became a new area of my research interests. In addition to my duties as a diplomatic representative, I began working on my own publications on issues that were being intensively explored by many experts, such as the process of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, transformations in the global balance of power, and U.S.-China relations. Strong research impulses were provided by publications, official reports of international organizations (APEC, ASEAN, EU, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank), as well as forums and numerous scientific conferences organized by local universities and renowned think tanks (IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, ISEAS, RSIS, IPS), economic organizations, and foundations. My articles published in Polish periodicals also originate from this period.

The research material gathered during my stay in Singapore also includes my numerous targeted conversations with representatives of the diplomatic corps and official Singaporean institutions, including in particular the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Finance, Singaporean investment funds—global corporations Temasek Holdings and GIC, the Singapore Business Federation, the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA), and Enterprise Singapore. It was these meetings and the knowledge I gained that inspired me to write on Asia-Pacific issues.

Today I have the pleasure and honor to express my thanks to the former Polish Ambassador to China, Thailand, and Indonesia, Mr. Krzysztof Szumski, the former Polish Ambassador to Thailand, retired Professor at the Jagiellonian University, Jerzy Bayer, as well as the former Singapore Ambassador to the UN, Professor of the University of Singapore Tommy Koh for introducing me to interesting aspects of Singapore’s foreign policy, ASEAN issue, and international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. I would like to express my thanks to Professor Edward Haliżak and Professor Jakub Zajączkowski for their critical comments and valuable substantive suggestions. May special thanks go to the Dean of the Faculty of Humanities, Head of the Department of Asian Studies at SWPS University, Prof. Marcin Jacoby for his support and great favor toward the project of publishing this book. The publication of this monograph would not have been possible without the support of the SWPS University Research Development Fund and the grant awarded. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to Professor Kazimierz Jóskowiak, Professor Dariusz Popławski and Professor Marek Pietras for their numerous valuable insights, as well as the organizational and financial support of Professor Marcin Jacoby, Dean of the Faculty of Humanities at SWPS University.

Finally, I would also like to note that this monograph was published in two versions: the first in Polish, published in 2022 by Dom Wydawniczy “Elipsa,” and this one, which is the English-language version, with a slightly changed title, and, most importantly, a revised and updated version, published and distributed by the Peter Lang Group. I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks to the excellent editorial team of Mr. Łukasz Galecki, Mr. Giovanni Tortoriello, Mr. Rajan Mittal and Mr. Andrew Buchanan, also Mrs. Kayalvizhi Saravanakumar for proofreading the English manuscript and all those who supported my efforts to make this book a breeze. The completion of this work would not have been possible without the understanding and patience of my family, my wife Halina and my son Jakub, to whom I also extend my heartfelt thanks.

With gratitude

Stanisław Kozłowski

Warsaw, May 2026

Introduction